Dementia Prevalence, Incidence and Mortality Trends Among US Adults Ages 72 and Older, 2011-2021

Background U.S.-focused studies have reported decreasing dementia prevalence in recent decades, but have not yet focused on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for trends. Methods We use the 2011-2021 National Health and Aging Trends Study (N=48,065) to examine dementia prevalence, incidence and mortality trends among adults ages 72 and older, and the contribution to prevalence trends of changes in the distribution of characteristics of the older population (“compositional shifts”) during the full and pre-pandemic periods. To minimize classification error, individuals must meet dementia criteria for two consecutive rounds. Results The prevalence of probable dementia declined from 11.9% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2019 and 8.2% in 2021 (3.1% average annual decline). Declines over the 2011-2021 period were concentrated among those ages 80-89 and non-Hispanic White individuals. Declines in dementia incidence were stronger for the 2011-2021 period than for the pre-pandemic period while mortality among those with dementia rose sharply with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Shifts in the composition of the older population accounted for a smaller fraction of the decline over the full period (28%) than over the pre-pandemic period (45%). Conclusions Declines in dementia prevalence continued into years marked by onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with declines in incidence and sharp increases in mortality among those with dementia. However, declines are no longer largely attributable to compositional changes in the older population. Continued tracking of dementia prevalence, incidence and mortality among those with and without dementia is needed to understand long-run consequences of the pandemic.