{"title":"基于集合学习的液化诱发侧向扩展位移评估","authors":"Zhixiong Chen, Chao Tan, Chenglong Wang, Yuhui Chen, Jian Chen, Yonghong Wang","doi":"10.1002/gj.4951","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Liquefaction-induced lateral spread is a kind of ground deformation caused by soil liquefaction, which is a danger to houses, roads and other infrastructures. In order to systematically investigate the influence law of different parameters on lateral displacement, this paper establishes a numerical model of the seismic responses of gently sloping grounds through the open-source finite element software OpenSees and carries out a large number of calculations considering various working conditions. Based on the calculation results, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and random forest (RF) regression are used to build the proxy models for lateral spread displacement prediction. The finite element model was verified by using the multiple VELACS No. 2 centrifuge experiments. Finally, the model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method. The results of the model training showed that both models were able to achieve a good fit to the numerical calculation results, with the RF model having a smaller prediction error for the centrifuge experiments. The model interpretation results showed that the modified cumulative absolute velocity (CAV<sub>5</sub>) was the most important input variable in the model, and the importance of ground slope (<i>S</i>), relative density (<i>D</i><sub>r</sub>) and thickness of liquefiable soil layer (<i>H</i><sub>L</sub>) was relatively high. In addition, the influence of each parameter on the lateral displacement is consistent with the actual situation, reflecting the rationality of the model prediction process. In addition, the results showed that there is a threshold for the modified cumulative absolute velocity (CAV<sub>5</sub>) and Arias intensity (<i>I</i><sub>a</sub>) that leads to a significant increase in lateral displacement. The thresholds of CAV<sub>5</sub> and <i>I</i><sub>a</sub> are 1.3 g s and 1.0 m/s, respectively. These thresholds are in good agreement with the thresholds for triggering the overall initial liquefaction of the soil layer determined by related studies, which provides a reference for the evaluation of liquefaction-induced lateral displacement.</p>","PeriodicalId":12784,"journal":{"name":"Geological Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evaluation of liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacement based on ensemble learning\",\"authors\":\"Zhixiong Chen, Chao Tan, Chenglong Wang, Yuhui Chen, Jian Chen, Yonghong Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/gj.4951\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Liquefaction-induced lateral spread is a kind of ground deformation caused by soil liquefaction, which is a danger to houses, roads and other infrastructures. In order to systematically investigate the influence law of different parameters on lateral displacement, this paper establishes a numerical model of the seismic responses of gently sloping grounds through the open-source finite element software OpenSees and carries out a large number of calculations considering various working conditions. Based on the calculation results, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and random forest (RF) regression are used to build the proxy models for lateral spread displacement prediction. The finite element model was verified by using the multiple VELACS No. 2 centrifuge experiments. Finally, the model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method. The results of the model training showed that both models were able to achieve a good fit to the numerical calculation results, with the RF model having a smaller prediction error for the centrifuge experiments. The model interpretation results showed that the modified cumulative absolute velocity (CAV<sub>5</sub>) was the most important input variable in the model, and the importance of ground slope (<i>S</i>), relative density (<i>D</i><sub>r</sub>) and thickness of liquefiable soil layer (<i>H</i><sub>L</sub>) was relatively high. In addition, the influence of each parameter on the lateral displacement is consistent with the actual situation, reflecting the rationality of the model prediction process. In addition, the results showed that there is a threshold for the modified cumulative absolute velocity (CAV<sub>5</sub>) and Arias intensity (<i>I</i><sub>a</sub>) that leads to a significant increase in lateral displacement. The thresholds of CAV<sub>5</sub> and <i>I</i><sub>a</sub> are 1.3 g s and 1.0 m/s, respectively. These thresholds are in good agreement with the thresholds for triggering the overall initial liquefaction of the soil layer determined by related studies, which provides a reference for the evaluation of liquefaction-induced lateral displacement.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12784,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geological Journal\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geological Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gj.4951\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geological Journal","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gj.4951","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
液化引起的侧向扩展是一种由土壤液化引起的地面变形，对房屋、道路等基础设施具有一定的危害。为了系统研究不同参数对侧向位移的影响规律，本文通过开源有限元软件 OpenSees 建立了缓坡地地震响应数值模型，并考虑各种工况条件进行了大量计算。在计算结果的基础上，利用极梯度提升（XGBoost）和随机森林（RF）回归建立了横向扩展位移预测的代理模型。通过多次 VELACS 2 号离心机实验对有限元模型进行了验证。最后，使用 SHapley Additive exPlanation（SHAP）方法对模型进行了解释。模型训练结果表明，两个模型都能很好地拟合数值计算结果，其中射频模型对离心机实验的预测误差较小。模型解释结果表明，修正累积绝对速度（CAV5）是模型中最重要的输入变量，地面坡度（S）、相对密度（Dr）和可液化土层厚度（HL）的重要性相对较高。此外，各参数对侧向位移的影响与实际情况相符，反映了模型预测过程的合理性。此外，结果表明，修正的累积绝对速度（CAV5）和阿里亚斯强度（Ia）存在导致侧向位移显著增加的阈值。CAV5 和 Ia 的阈值分别为 1.3 g s 和 1.0 m/s。这些临界值与相关研究确定的引发土层整体初始液化的临界值十分吻合，为评估液化引起的侧向位移提供了参考。
Evaluation of liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacement based on ensemble learning
Liquefaction-induced lateral spread is a kind of ground deformation caused by soil liquefaction, which is a danger to houses, roads and other infrastructures. In order to systematically investigate the influence law of different parameters on lateral displacement, this paper establishes a numerical model of the seismic responses of gently sloping grounds through the open-source finite element software OpenSees and carries out a large number of calculations considering various working conditions. Based on the calculation results, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and random forest (RF) regression are used to build the proxy models for lateral spread displacement prediction. The finite element model was verified by using the multiple VELACS No. 2 centrifuge experiments. Finally, the model was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) method. The results of the model training showed that both models were able to achieve a good fit to the numerical calculation results, with the RF model having a smaller prediction error for the centrifuge experiments. The model interpretation results showed that the modified cumulative absolute velocity (CAV5) was the most important input variable in the model, and the importance of ground slope (S), relative density (Dr) and thickness of liquefiable soil layer (HL) was relatively high. In addition, the influence of each parameter on the lateral displacement is consistent with the actual situation, reflecting the rationality of the model prediction process. In addition, the results showed that there is a threshold for the modified cumulative absolute velocity (CAV5) and Arias intensity (Ia) that leads to a significant increase in lateral displacement. The thresholds of CAV5 and Ia are 1.3 g s and 1.0 m/s, respectively. These thresholds are in good agreement with the thresholds for triggering the overall initial liquefaction of the soil layer determined by related studies, which provides a reference for the evaluation of liquefaction-induced lateral displacement.
期刊介绍：
In recent years there has been a growth of specialist journals within geological sciences. Nevertheless, there is an important role for a journal of an interdisciplinary kind. Traditionally, GEOLOGICAL JOURNAL has been such a journal and continues in its aim of promoting interest in all branches of the Geological Sciences, through publication of original research papers and review articles. The journal publishes Special Issues with a common theme or regional coverage e.g. Chinese Dinosaurs; Tectonics of the Eastern Mediterranean, Triassic basins of the Central and North Atlantic Borderlands). These are extensively cited.
The Journal has a particular interest in publishing papers on regional case studies from any global locality which have conclusions of general interest. Such papers may emphasize aspects across the full spectrum of geological sciences.
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