全球移民流引力模型：预测评估

IF 2.6 3区社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY

Population Research and Policy Review Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI:10.1007/s11113-024-09867-6

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本研究介绍了一个基于引力方程的综合计量经济学框架，旨在预测国家间的移民流动。我们通过经验数据验证了该模型的理论基础，并表明该模型比其他全球模型具有更好的样本外预测能力。我们探讨了各种社会经济、人口和地理因素对移民的定量影响，并说明了如何使用该模型对双边移民进行情景驱动预测，评估移民对德国和葡萄牙 2021-2025 年人口和 GDP 动态的潜在贡献。我们的预测结果强调了移民在维持人口水平和经济增长方面的关键作用，尤其是在整个欧洲人口老龄化和生育率下降的背景下。

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Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation

Abstract

This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe.

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来源期刊

Population Research and Policy Review DEMOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

4.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： Now accepted in JSTOR! Population Research and Policy Review has a twofold goal: it provides a convenient source for government officials and scholars in which they can learn about the policy implications of recent research relevant to the causes and consequences of changing population size and composition; and it provides a broad, interdisciplinary coverage of population research. Population Research and Policy Review seeks to publish quality material of interest to professionals working in the fields of population, and those fields which intersect and overlap with population studies. The publication includes demographic, economic, social, political and health research papers and related contributions which are based on either the direct scientific evaluation of particular policies or programs, or general contributions intended to advance knowledge that informs policy and program development.