Do participants in widening participation outreach programmes in England progress to selective universities at a higher rate than would otherwise be expected?

Young people growing up in England from a poorer background are less likely to progress into higher education compared to their better off counterparts. This is especially true with respect to more selective universities. This study used government administrative data to gauge the effectiveness of the ‘Realising Opportunities’ programme, which provides a package of support to prospective university applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds to facilitate their progression to more selective universities. Data was gathered concerning 769 16 to 18-year-old students who took part in the programme—which is delivered by a consortium of selective universities—between 2015 and 2017. This data revealed participants' personal characteristics (e.g., gender, ethnicity and socioeconomic status), school attainment and eventual university destination (or lack thereof). Additionally, national administrative data was sourced from the Department for Education's National Pupil Database and the Higher Education Statistics Agency for the entire cohort of state school pupils in England who turned 16 in the 2014–2015 academic year. This national data was used to generate a statistical model that could predict the likelihood of a young person in England progressing to a selective university based on their school attainment and other personal characteristics. Data concerning the programme participants was fed through the model and it was observed that the number of participants who had in fact progressed to selective universities greatly exceeded that predicted. Participation in the Realising Opportunities programme therefore appeared to be positively associated with an increased likelihood of progression to a selective university.