预计气候驱动的珊瑚分布变化表明西南大西洋珊瑚礁热带化

IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Melina Ferreira Martello, Jessica Bleuel, Maria Grazia Pennino, Guilherme Ortigara Longo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

要预测生态系统的未来并采取相应行动,就必须了解气候变化导致的物种分布变化。我们研究了在气候变暖的情况下,哪些珊瑚更有可能改变其在西南大西洋的分布。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Projected climate-driven shifts in coral distribution indicate tropicalisation of Southwestern Atlantic reefs

Projected climate-driven shifts in coral distribution indicate tropicalisation of Southwestern Atlantic reefs

Aim

Predicting and acting on the future of ecosystems requires understanding species distribution shifts due to climate change. We investigated which corals are more likely to shift their distribution in the Southwestern Atlantic under a warming scenario.

Location

Southwestern Atlantic (SWA; 1° N–28° S).

Methods

We used spatial distribution models with a Bayesian approach to predict the current and future (2050 and 2100) coral occurrence probabilities of 12 zooxanthellate corals and hydrocorals under an intermediate scenario of increasing greenhouse gas emissions (RCP6.0) projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Results

We found a decline in the occurrence probabilities of all 12 taxa within the tropics (1° N–20° S) and an increase towards subtropical sites (20–28° S) as early as 2050. The most significant declines are projected to occur between 9° S and 20° S, a region that currently hosts the richest reef complex in the South Atlantic, the Abrolhos bank. The imminent loss of suitable habitat in the tropics mostly threatens the Brazilian endemics and range restricted corals Mussismilia braziliensis and Mussismilia harttii, while more widely distributed taxa such as Siderastrea spp., Millepora spp. and Porites spp. are expected to expand their ranges southwards.

Main Conclusions

The projected declines in the tropical region are likely to reduce structural complexity causing biodiversity loss. The overall increase in occurrence probabilities in subtropical areas indicates tropicalisation of SWA reefs, which may benefit species already established in these areas and potentially enrich coral assemblages through the range expansion of taxa that currently do not occur in the region. These findings emphasise the need to support ecological corridors that could aid coral migration towards more suitable habitats under climate change.

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来源期刊
Diversity and Distributions
Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
195
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.
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