预测气候变化下北极岸栖鸟类栖息地变化的意外不确定性来源

IF 4.6 2区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Christine M. Anderson, Lenore Fahrig, Jennie Rausch, Paul A. Smith
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的瞬息万变的北极是研究气候预测不确定性的理想之地。尽管在这一地区收集数据面临挑战,但在过去 30 年中,对海岸鸟类进行了前所未有的大规模调查。我们的研究旨在:(1)对到 2075 年加拿大 10 种北极岸鸟适宜栖息地的变化进行概率估算;(2)评估建模决策对这些估算的不确定性所起的作用。我们测试了较少探讨的三个决策--候选变量库、选择变量的方法和树线扩散的最大距离,以及建模算法、碳排放情景和全球环流模型。结果我们的研究结果表明,8/10 个物种将面临失去一半以上适宜繁殖栖息地的巨大风险,但这一预测的确定性远低于之前的描述。虽然许多不确定性无法解释,但令我们感到惊讶的是,在我们的建模决策中,最大的不确定性来源于我们对变量选择方法的选择,而其他建模决策的不确定性来源相对较小,掩盖了其他建模决策的不确定性。全面了解不确定性对于决定在规划气候适应性保护区网络时是否可以或应该使用未来预测非常重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Unexpected sources of uncertainty in projecting habitat shifts for Arctic shorebirds under climate change

Unexpected sources of uncertainty in projecting habitat shifts for Arctic shorebirds under climate change

Aim

The rapidly changing Arctic is ideal for investigating uncertainties in climate projections. Despite the challenges of collecting data in this region, an unprecedented large-scale survey of shorebirds has been conducted over the last 30 years. Our study aimed to (1) develop probabilistic estimates for the change in suitable habitat for 10 Arctic shorebird species in Canada by 2075 and (2) assess the contribution of modelling decisions to the uncertainty in these estimates.

Location

Arctic Canada.

Methods

To evaluate uncertainty, we considered six classes of modelling decisions, yielding 216 unique projections for each species. We tested three decisions that are less commonly explored − the pool of candidate variables, a method for selecting variables, and the maximum distance of tree line dispersal, as well as the modelling algorithm, carbon emissions scenario, and global circulation model. We used a bootstrapping approach, creating a probability distribution for the proportional change in suitable habitat for each species.

Results

Our findings indicated a substantial risk for 8/10 species to lose over half of their suitable breeding habitat, but this projection is much less certain than has been described previously. While much uncertainty is unexplained, we were surprised that the largest source of uncertainty among our modelling decisions was from our choice of methods for variable selection, that the other modelling decisions were relatively small sources of uncertainty, overshadowing other modelling decisions.

Main Conclusions

While most scenarios predict a northward shift and significant habitat loss for Arctic-breeding shorebirds, the Arctic Archipelago of Canada will remain an important refuge because in many other Arctic regions, there is no land farther north for these species to shift into. A comprehensive understanding of uncertainty is important for deciding if future projections can or should be used when planning climate-resilient protected area networks.

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来源期刊
Diversity and Distributions
Diversity and Distributions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
8.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
195
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.
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