Survival of red knots in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Highly migratory shorebirds are among the fastest declining avian guilds, so determining causes of mortality is critically important for their conservation. Most of these species depend on a specific geographic arrangement of suitable sites that reliably provide resources needed to fuel physiologically demanding life histories. Long-term mark-resight projects allow researchers to investigate specific potential sources of variation in demographic rates between populations. Red Knots (Calidris canutus) occur in three relatively distinct regions across the northern Gulf of Mexico, and two of these areas have been experiencing episodic harmful algal blooms (red tide) with increased frequency in recent decades. Since knots are mostly molluscivorous during the nonbreeding season in the Gulf, they are potentially exposed to red tide toxins at high concentrations via their filter-feeding prey. We used long-term mark-resight data from Texas, Louisiana, and Florida (USA) to estimate apparent survival, and to assess the effects of red tides on survival of Red Knots. We also assessed effects of tracking devices deployed in conjunction with the projects over the years. While overall apparent annual survival rates were similar across the three locations (0.768 – 0.819), several red tide events were associated with catastrophically low seasonal (fall) survival in Florida (as low as 0.492) and Texas (as low as 0.510). Leg-mounted geolocators, but not temporary glued-on VHF tags, were associated with a reduction in apparent survival (~8%/year). Movement of knots between the three areas was rare and site fidelity is known to be high. Harmful algal blooms are predicted to increase in frequency and severity with climate change and increased anthropogenic degradation of coastal habitats, which may further endanger these as well as other shorebird populations around the world.