根据文献资料推测的未来排放和温度的可能性

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Climate Risk Management Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100605

Frank Venmans , Ben Carr

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们今天应该把堤坝建得多高，知道它的使用寿命将超过 50 年？这取决于未来温度的概率分布。我们回顾了有关当前/既定政策方案和当前承诺方案的未来排放量估计的文献。通过对专家征询、情景减排成本、技术学习率、化石燃料供应方动态和地球工程进行回顾，我们认为，排放量大大超出当前/既定政策情景和大大低于当前承诺情景的情景相对不太可能出现。在此基础上，我们根据文献资料对未来温度的可能性进行了评估，以用于 2030、2050 和 2100 年的风险价值压力测试。

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Literature-informed likelihoods of future emissions and temperatures

How high should we build a dyke today, knowing that it will serve for more than 50 years? This depends on the probability distribution of future temperatures. We review the literature on estimates of future emissions for current/stated policy scenarios and current pledge scenarios. Reviewing expert elicitations, abatement costs of scenarios, learning rates of technologies, fossil fuel supply side dynamics and geoengineering, we argue that scenarios with emissions largely beyond current/stated policy scenarios and largely below current pledge scenarios are relatively unlikely. Based on this, we develop a literature-informed evaluation of the likelihoods of future temperature for use in Value at Risk stress tests in 2030, 2050 and 2100.

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来源期刊

Climate Risk Management Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.20

自引率

4.50%

发文量

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： Climate Risk Management publishes original scientific contributions, state-of-the-art reviews and reports of practical experience on the use of knowledge and information regarding the consequences of climate variability and climate change in decision and policy making on climate change responses from the near- to long-term. The concept of climate risk management refers to activities and methods that are used by individuals, organizations, and institutions to facilitate climate-resilient decision-making. Its objective is to promote sustainable development by maximizing the beneficial impacts of climate change responses and minimizing negative impacts across the full spectrum of geographies and sectors that are potentially affected by the changing climate.