技术发展是否存在普遍限制?来自天体生物学的证据

IF 3 3区 管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Antonio Gelis-Filho
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引用次数: 0

摘要

考虑到时间和空间的浩瀚,如果一种文明--我们的文明--能够在技术上进步到离开自己的星球,那么为什么其他先进的地外文明的技术信号从未被发现呢?在本文中,我将利用天体生物学、可持续发展和考古学中的见解,对韦伯等人最初提出的观点做出解释。我认为,技术发展存在一个普遍的极限(ULTD),其决定因素包括:社会复杂性的技术回报率不断降低、现有技术的维护成本不断增加、科学理论因成本高昂而最终无法测试、测试这些理论所需的能量水平无法达到,以及对文明造成破坏的灾难。我还根据 "平庸原则 "认为,超限寿命不会比我们目前的技术发展水平高出太多。因此,技术将无法为人类提供另一个家园。在决策过程中,无论是分配资源用于研究或缓解技术引起的行星变化,还是确定太空探索的目标,都应考虑到这种可能性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Is there a universal limit to technological development? Evidences from astrobiology

Considering the vastness of time and space, if one civilization — ours — has been able to advance technologically to the point of leaving its own planet, why technosignatures from other advanced extraterrestrial civilizations have never been identified? In this paper, I offer an explanation for that, developing an insight originally presented by Webb and others and using insights from astrobiology, sustainability and archaeology. I argue that there exists a universal limit to technological development (ULTD), determined by decreasing technological returns on societal complexity, increasing maintenance costs of existing technology, the eventual untestability of scientific theories due to the high costs involved and the unattainable energy levels needed to test them and civilization-damaging catastrophes. I also argue, based on the principle of mediocrity, that the ULTD is not much above our current level of technological development. Technology, therefore, will not be able to provide another home to humankind. Such a possibility should be taken into consideration during the decision-making process concerning both the allocation of resources to research or mitigation of technology-induced planetary changes and the definition of goals to space exploration.

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来源期刊
Futures
Futures Multiple-
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
10.00%
发文量
124
期刊介绍: Futures is an international, refereed, multidisciplinary journal concerned with medium and long-term futures of cultures and societies, science and technology, economics and politics, environment and the planet and individuals and humanity. Covering methods and practices of futures studies, the journal seeks to examine possible and alternative futures of all human endeavours. Futures seeks to promote divergent and pluralistic visions, ideas and opinions about the future. The editors do not necessarily agree with the views expressed in the pages of Futures
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