据预测,在气候变化的影响下,南部非洲目前栽培的外来植物群的入侵风险将下降

IF 5.4 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
Ecography Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI:10.1111/ecog.07010
Ali Omer, Franz Essl, Stefan Dullinger, Bernd Lenzner, Adrián García-Rodríguez, Dietmar Moser, Trevor Fristoe, Wayne Dawson, Patrick Weigelt, Holger Kreft, Jan Pergl, Petr Pyšek, Mark van Kleunen, Johannes Wessely
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引用次数: 0

摘要

外来物种会对本地生物多样性、生态系统功能和人类生计产生巨大影响。评估目前栽培的外来植物中哪些物种可能会逃逸到野外并归化,对于高效、积极的生态系统管理和生物多样性保护至关重要。气候变化已经促进了许多外来植物在温带地区的归化,但(亚)热带地区的情况是否类似,目前还不十分清楚。在这项研究中,我们利用 1527 种栽培外来植物的物种分布模型,评估了不同生物群落和南部非洲 10 个国家当前和未来的入侵风险。我们的研究结果证实,气候适宜的地区是预测栽培外来植物区系归化成功与否的重要因素。然而,与以往温带地区的研究结果不同,在我们的(亚)热带研究地区,气候适宜性对潜在外来物种的影响普遍下降。虽然在南部非洲的大多数生物群落中,越来越炎热和干燥的条件可能会导致潜在外来物种的适宜性下降,但在一些生物群落中,在温和的气候变化情景下,潜在入侵者的数量预计会增加(如在干燥阔叶林和淹水草地)。我们发现,对于来自热带生物群落大陆或南半球的外来物种来说,气候适宜性的下降幅度较小。此外,我们还发现,对于已经在该地区归化的外来物种来说,气候适宜性的下降幅度较小。虽然在未来气候变化的情况下,整个南部非洲潜在入侵者的数量可能会减少,但我们的研究结果表明,已经归化的外来物种将继续威胁本地物种和生态系统。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Invasion risk of the currently cultivated alien flora in southern Africa is predicted to decline under climate change

Invasion risk of the currently cultivated alien flora in southern Africa is predicted to decline under climate change

Alien species can have massive impacts on native biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, and human livelihoods. Assessing which species from currently cultivated alien floras may escape into the wild and naturalize is essential for efficient and proactive ecosystem management and biodiversity conservation. Climate change has already promoted the naturalization of many alien plants in temperate regions, but whether it is similar in (sub)tropical areas is insufficiently known. In this study, we used species distribution models for 1527 cultivated alien plants to evaluate current and future invasion risks across different biomes and 10 countries in southern Africa. Our results confirm that the area of suitable climate is a strong predictor of naturalization success among the cultivated alien flora. In contrast to previous findings from temperate regions, however, climatic suitability is generally predicted to decrease for potential aliens across our (sub)tropical study region. While increasingly hotter and drier conditions are likely to drive declines in suitability for potential aliens across most biomes of southern Africa, in some the number of potential invaders is predicted to increase under moderate climate change scenarios (e.g. in dry broadleaf forests and flooded grasslands). We found that climatic suitability is expected to decline less for aliens originating from continents with the tropical biome or from the Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we found that the climatically suitable area will decline less for aliens that have already naturalized in the region. While the number of potential invaders may decrease across southern Africa under future climate change, our results suggest that already naturalized aliens will continue to threaten native species and ecosystems.

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来源期刊
Ecography
Ecography 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
11.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
122
审稿时长
8-16 weeks
期刊介绍: ECOGRAPHY publishes exciting, novel, and important articles that significantly advance understanding of ecological or biodiversity patterns in space or time. Papers focusing on conservation or restoration are welcomed, provided they are anchored in ecological theory and convey a general message that goes beyond a single case study. We encourage papers that seek advancing the field through the development and testing of theory or methodology, or by proposing new tools for analysis or interpretation of ecological phenomena. Manuscripts are expected to address general principles in ecology, though they may do so using a specific model system if they adequately frame the problem relative to a generalized ecological question or problem. Purely descriptive papers are considered only if breaking new ground and/or describing patterns seldom explored. Studies focused on a single species or single location are generally discouraged unless they make a significant contribution to advancing general theory or understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes. Manuscripts merely confirming or marginally extending results of previous work are unlikely to be considered in Ecography. Papers are judged by virtue of their originality, appeal to general interest, and their contribution to new developments in studies of spatial and temporal ecological patterns. There are no biases with regard to taxon, biome, or biogeographical area.
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