The Impact of Foreign Trade on Carbon Productivity Based on VAR Model

Global carbon emissions and climate change are of increasing concern. As a critical indicator of the carbon efficiency of economic activities, carbon productivity has improved, resulting in a relative reduction in carbon emissions and output growth. As an essential part of the national economy, foreign trade profoundly impacts carbon productivity by promoting technology exchange, industrial upgrading, and structural adjustment. The carbon emission impact of foreign trade is not uniform, and there are noticeable differences between countries and regions. This paper examines how foreign trade affects carbon productivity and through which mechanisms, and further analyzes regional and industrial differences in these effects to provide a basis for the formulation of relevant policies. According to the study, there is a significant time lag effect on foreign trade’s impact on carbon productivity, and there are differences between industries and regions. Promoting foreign trade in this paper results in technological progress and improved carbon productivity, with an average improvement of 5.2%. By optimizing and adjusting industrial structure, carbon productivity is promoted better, with an increase of around 4.3%. High carbon emission industries have a relatively weak positive effect. Foreign trade positively impacts carbon productivity by promoting technological progress and industrial restructuring, but it is necessary to have differentiated policies for different industries and regions.