Tati Mushalihati Ratuinsani, Haris Muhammadun, Laksono Djoko Nugroho
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引用次数: 0
摘要
瓦图乌洛海滩是渔业社区的重要枢纽,为海上捕鱼提供资源,也是渔获物的卸货点。当地政府计划在 Watu Ulo 建造一个渔港,以改善渔民的设施。本研究考虑了悲观、温和和乐观三种收入情景,评估了投资港口建设的财务可行性和敏感性。使用净现值(NPV)、内部收益率(IRR)、资本利得率(BCR)和收益率(PP)方法进行的财务分析表明,该项目在中度和乐观情景下是可行的,但在悲观情景下由于内部收益率(6.15%)小于外部收益率(7.72%)而不可行。敏感性分析表明,收入敏感性对所有方案都至关重要,如果收入低于某些临界值,投资就变得不可行:悲观方案为-13.67%,中度方案为-39.96%,乐观方案为-40.75%。运营成本敏感性也很重要,如果成本偏差超过特定临界值,投资就不可行:悲观方案为 -15.96%,中度方案为 +22.67%,乐观方案为 25.59%。
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATU ULO FISHING PORT BASED ON FINANCIAL ASPECTS AND SENSITIVITY ASPECTS
Watu Ulo Beach serves as a vital hub for fishing communities, supplying resources for sea fishing and serving as a landing point for catches. The local government plans to construct a fishing port at Watu Ulo to enhance facilities for fishermen. This study assesses the financial feasibility and sensitivity of investing in the port's construction, considering three income scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic. Financial analysis using NPV, IRR, BCR, and PP methods deems the project feasible for moderate and optimistic scenarios, but not for the pessimistic scenario due to IRR (6.15%) < MARR (7.72%). Sensitivity analysis reveals that revenue sensitivity is critical for all scenarios, with the investment becoming unfeasible if revenue falls below certain thresholds: -13.67% for pessimistic, -39.96% for moderate, and -40.75% for optimistic scenarios. Operating cost sensitivity is also crucial, rendering the investment unfeasible if costs deviate beyond specific thresholds: -15.96% for pessimistic, +22.67% for moderate, and 25.59% for optimistic scenarios.