财政政策、货币政策与增长:失业和通货膨胀对沙特阿拉伯经济增长的影响

Muhammad Zaini, Basel Balila
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文采用时间序列回归分析法,研究了 1999 年至 2022 年期间财政政策和货币政策对沙特阿拉伯经济增长的长期影响。在财政政策方面,我们重点关注政府支出,但不包括税收,因为在研究期间的大部分时间里,沙特阿拉伯王国并未将税收作为一种财政工具。在货币政策方面,我们关注货币供应量(即公开市场操作),但不包括利率,因为沙特中央银行对美元采取固定汇率政策,在设定利率时,其货币独立性在一定程度上已经输给了美联储。我们的研究结果表明,从长期来看,政府支出对经济增长有显著的正向影响,失业率对经济增长有显著的负向影响。此外,我们还发现货币供应量和通货膨胀对长期经济增长的影响在统计上并不显著。这些结果与经济理论和实证研究相吻合,因为这些研究表明,奉行固定汇率政策的国家通常会丧失其货币政策的有效性。最后,我们建议要格外小心,不要过度使用政府支出作为唯一的增长工具:一方面,政府支出可以促进经济增长和降低失业率,但另一方面,如果恰好是赤字支出,则会助长通货膨胀和增加国债。因此,沙特阿拉伯必须减少对政府支出的依赖,实现收入资源多样化,为私营部门创造就业机会,并为国内外投资创造一个稳定和有吸引力的商业环境。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and Growth: The Impact of Unemployment and Inflation on Growth in Saudi Arabia
This paper uses time-series regression analysis to investigate the long-run effect of fiscal and monetary policies on economic growth in Saudi Arabia from 1999 to 2022. Regarding fiscal policy, we focus on government spending and exclude taxes because the latter had not been used in the Kingdom as a fiscal tool during most of the study period. For monetary policy, we focus on money supply (i.e., open market operations) and exclude interest rate, because by following a fixed-exchange-rate policy to the US dollar, the Saudi Central Bank has lost some of its monetary independence to the Federal Reserve when it comes to setting interest rates. Our results show a statistically significant positive impact of government spending on economic growth and a statistically significant negative impact of unemployment on economic growth in the long run. Also, we find the effect of money supply and inflation on economic growth in the long run to be statistically insignificant. These results are consistent with economic theory and empirical research which show countries that follow a fixed-exchange-rate policy usually lose the effectiveness of their monetary policy. Finally, we recommend taking extra care not to overuse government spending as the only tool for growth: on one hand, government spending boosts growth and lowers unemployment, but on the other, it fuels inflation and increases the national debt if it happens to be deficit spending. Therefore, it is important for Saudi Arabia to be less dependent on government spending by diversifying its income resources, creating jobs in the private sector, and creating a stable and attractive business environment for domestic and foreign investments.
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