利用 CMIP5-CORDEX 产品预测气候变化情景下伊朗干旱特征的时空变化

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES

Journal of Water and Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-02-17 DOI:10.2166/wcc.2024.468

Alireza Ghaemi, S. H. Hashemi Monfared, A. Bahrpeyma, Peyman Mahmoudi, Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在利用修正的标准化降水指数（MSPI）和运行理论，评估伊朗在气候变化影响下干旱特征（强度、持续时间和频率）在近未来、中未来（MF）和远未来三种气候下年和季节尺度上的变化。因此，应用了从南亚协调区域气候降尺度实验（CORDEX-SA）中提取的区域气候模型。结果表明，在历史时期（HP），MSPI 比传统形式的 SPI 更好地分配标准化降水指数（SPI）值。结果表明，在季节时间尺度上，东北部各站的干旱强度在 2100 年前将有所下降（与 HP 相比，MF 降低了 24.57%）。而干旱的持续时间和频率将增加。虽然到本世纪末，伊朗东部和西南部地区的干旱强度变化增幅最大（高达 91%），但这些地区的干旱持续时间（-30.54%）和频率（-25%）在季节时间尺度上将比 HP 地区下降最多。此外，根据本研究的结果，可以采取一些策略来更好地管理伊朗各地区的水资源。

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Spatiotemporal variation of projected drought characteristics in Iran under climate change scenarios using CMIP5-CORDEX product

This study aims to assess the change of drought characteristics (intensity, duration, and frequency) under the effect of climate change in Iran using the modified standardized precipitation index (MSPI) and theory of runs on annual and seasonal scales for three near-future, mid-future (MF), and far-future climates. Hence, regional climate models extracted from South Asia-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX-SA) are applied. Regarding the result, MSPI could assign the standardized precipitation index (SPI) values better than the conventional form of SPI during the historical period (HP). The outcomes revealed that the northeast stations will experience a decrease in intensity (up to 24.57% in MF compared to HP) until 2100 at seasonal timescale. While the duration and frequency of drought will be increased. Although the greatest increase in intensity changes of droughts (up to 91%) until the end of the century will happen in the eastern and southwestern regions of Iran, these regions will face the maximum decrease in the duration (−30.54%) and frequency (−25%) of droughts compared to HP at seasonal timescale. In addition, regarding the outcomes of this study, strategies can be adopted to better manage water resources for various regions of Iran.

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来源期刊

Journal of Water and Climate Change WATER RESOURCES-

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

10.70%

发文量

168

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.