Jia-yi Liang, Liguang Wu, Chunyi Xiang, Qingyuan Liu
{"title":"为什么 GFS 没有预测到台风 IN-FA(2021 年)在台湾岛以东减弱?","authors":"Jia-yi Liang, Liguang Wu, Chunyi Xiang, Qingyuan Liu","doi":"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0262.1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\nTyphoon IN-FA (2021) experienced a weakening process on July 22–23 in a large-scale environment favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. All operational forecasts and the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts predicted a continuous intensification, which deviated significantly from the observation. The analysis of the GFS analysis product shows a coalescence process of Typhoon IN-FA with an intraseasonal monsoon gyre during the period, resulting in an increased outer size of IN-FA and well-organized convection to the east, which prevented transporting the mass and moisture into the inner-core area of IN-FA, thus leading to the weakening. Nevertheless, this essential coalescence process was not captured in the GFS forecasts due to the poor prediction of the monsoon gyre. The analysis shows that the forecasted monsoon gyre on July 20–22 had an eastward location at 72 h and 96 h lead times and a weaker intensity and outer circulation at 24 h and 48 h lead times, leading to the forecasted TC always moving in its north and west, in agreement with numerical simulation results that the monsoon gyre with a weaker outer circulation is not conducive to the coalescence. Thus, the deep convection to the east of IN-FA preventing the inward transportation of mass and moisture did not develop in the GFS forecasts. As a result, the GFS forecasted that IN-FA would continue intensifying in a favorable environment on July 22–23. The findings of this study would prompt forecasters to pay attention to the prediction of the monsoon gyre and its influence on the TC intensity in forecast products available to them.","PeriodicalId":2,"journal":{"name":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","volume":"14 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Why was the weakening of Typhoon IN-FA (2021) to the east of Taiwan Island not forecasted in the GFS?\",\"authors\":\"Jia-yi Liang, Liguang Wu, Chunyi Xiang, Qingyuan Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.1175/mwr-d-22-0262.1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\nTyphoon IN-FA (2021) experienced a weakening process on July 22–23 in a large-scale environment favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. All operational forecasts and the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts predicted a continuous intensification, which deviated significantly from the observation. The analysis of the GFS analysis product shows a coalescence process of Typhoon IN-FA with an intraseasonal monsoon gyre during the period, resulting in an increased outer size of IN-FA and well-organized convection to the east, which prevented transporting the mass and moisture into the inner-core area of IN-FA, thus leading to the weakening. Nevertheless, this essential coalescence process was not captured in the GFS forecasts due to the poor prediction of the monsoon gyre. The analysis shows that the forecasted monsoon gyre on July 20–22 had an eastward location at 72 h and 96 h lead times and a weaker intensity and outer circulation at 24 h and 48 h lead times, leading to the forecasted TC always moving in its north and west, in agreement with numerical simulation results that the monsoon gyre with a weaker outer circulation is not conducive to the coalescence. Thus, the deep convection to the east of IN-FA preventing the inward transportation of mass and moisture did not develop in the GFS forecasts. As a result, the GFS forecasted that IN-FA would continue intensifying in a favorable environment on July 22–23. The findings of this study would prompt forecasters to pay attention to the prediction of the monsoon gyre and its influence on the TC intensity in forecast products available to them.\",\"PeriodicalId\":2,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ACS Applied Bio Materials\",\"volume\":\"14 6\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ACS Applied Bio Materials\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0262.1\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ACS Applied Bio Materials","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-22-0262.1","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Why was the weakening of Typhoon IN-FA (2021) to the east of Taiwan Island not forecasted in the GFS?
Typhoon IN-FA (2021) experienced a weakening process on July 22–23 in a large-scale environment favorable for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. All operational forecasts and the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts predicted a continuous intensification, which deviated significantly from the observation. The analysis of the GFS analysis product shows a coalescence process of Typhoon IN-FA with an intraseasonal monsoon gyre during the period, resulting in an increased outer size of IN-FA and well-organized convection to the east, which prevented transporting the mass and moisture into the inner-core area of IN-FA, thus leading to the weakening. Nevertheless, this essential coalescence process was not captured in the GFS forecasts due to the poor prediction of the monsoon gyre. The analysis shows that the forecasted monsoon gyre on July 20–22 had an eastward location at 72 h and 96 h lead times and a weaker intensity and outer circulation at 24 h and 48 h lead times, leading to the forecasted TC always moving in its north and west, in agreement with numerical simulation results that the monsoon gyre with a weaker outer circulation is not conducive to the coalescence. Thus, the deep convection to the east of IN-FA preventing the inward transportation of mass and moisture did not develop in the GFS forecasts. As a result, the GFS forecasted that IN-FA would continue intensifying in a favorable environment on July 22–23. The findings of this study would prompt forecasters to pay attention to the prediction of the monsoon gyre and its influence on the TC intensity in forecast products available to them.
期刊介绍:
ACS Applied Bio Materials is an interdisciplinary journal publishing original research covering all aspects of biomaterials and biointerfaces including and beyond the traditional biosensing, biomedical and therapeutic applications.
The journal is devoted to reports of new and original experimental and theoretical research of an applied nature that integrates knowledge in the areas of materials, engineering, physics, bioscience, and chemistry into important bio applications. The journal is specifically interested in work that addresses the relationship between structure and function and assesses the stability and degradation of materials under relevant environmental and biological conditions.