2023 年 2 月 6 日土耳其 MW7.8 级地震余震序列的时间特征

P. Raykova, D. Solakov, S. Simeonova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2023 年 2 月 6 日,土耳其加济安泰普以西的东安纳托利亚断裂带发生了破坏性地震,震级为 MW7.8(当地震级为 ML=7.5)。研究余震的时间分布对于了解地震发生过程的物理原理非常重要。本研究分析了 2023 年土耳其 MW7.8 级地震余震序列的时间模式。由于位置和辐射模式以及建筑物破坏的累积性等因素,余震可能比主震造成更大的破坏。余震在时间上的群集性是地震活动的主要非随机因素,因此,当剔除群集后,余下的活动可以(作为第一近似值)模拟为泊松过程。假设余震在时间上分布为非平稳泊松过程,我们使用最大似然法估算修正大森公式的参数(K、c 和 p)。为了测试余震发生率与不同统计模型之间的拟合程度,我们将时间尺度 t 转换为频率线性化时间尺度 τ。Akaike 信息准则用于选择余震时间分布的最佳模型。研究发现,2023 年土耳其地震余震的时间分布以典型的幂律时间衰减为主,表明存在二次余震活动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Temporal Characteristics of the February 6, 2023 MW7.8, Turkey Earthquake Aftershock Sequence
The devastating earthquake with moment magnitude MW7.8, (local magnitude ML=7.5) which occurred in the East Anatolian Fault Zone, westwards of Gaziantep, Turkey on February 6, 2023 was followed by an intensive aftershock activity. Studying time distribution of aftershocks is important for understanding physics of the earthquake generation process. In the present study temporal pattern of aftershock sequence of the 2023 MW7.8 Turkey earthquake is analyzed. Because of the factors such as location and radiation pattern and the cumulative nature of building damage, aftershocks can cause more damage than the main shock. The temporal clustering of aftershocks is a dominant non-random element of the seismicity, so when the clusters are removed, the remaining activity can be modelled (as first approximation) as a Poisson process. On the assumption that aftershocks are distributed in time as a non-stationary Poisson process, we use the maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters (K, c and p) of the modified Omori formula. For testing the goodness of fit between the aftershock occurrence and different statistical models, a transformation from the time scale t to a frequency-linearized time scale τ  is applied. Akaike's information criteria is used to select the best model for the temporal distribution of aftershocks. It has been found that temporal distribution of the 2023 Turkey earthquake aftershocks is dominated by the classic power law decay in time and suggests the existence of secondary aftershock activity.
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