群体不满、机会与内战爆发:1990-2017 年竞争机制的一些理论与检验

Indra de Soysa, Henning Finseraas, K. Vadlamannati
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摘要

最近有学者称,政治排斥和歧视导致的群体不满情绪推动了内战。不满观点认为,社会心理因素使群体能够克服集体行动问题。我们认为,冤情视角(过度)关注了目的而非手段,而这对于解释群体如何在国家制裁下生存下来,使争论升级为内战至关重要。我们认为,包容性经济治理减少了出于日常经济原因而投资于逃避国家制裁的基础设施,从而导致叛乱专用资本的积累。规避国家的物质和人力基础设施构成了对抗国家制裁的生存后勤基础。我们的分析表明,与以自由市场友好政策和经济私有制为衡量标准的经济自由相比,产生群体怨愤的政治因素对内战的预测能力较弱,而自由市场友好政策和经济私有制应能减少逃避国家的影子市场的经济租金。我们的结果对几种替代模型、数据和估算方法都是稳健的。忽略手段的理论只能部分解释代价高昂的暴力的主要原因,或者误把症状当做原因。自由和包容本应减少怨愤,它们本身是有价值的,但当暴力是为了更狭隘的目的而成功发动时,它们就很难获得了。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Group Grievances, Opportunity, and the Onset of Civil War: Some Theory and Tests of Competing Mechanisms, 1990–2017
Recent scholarship claims that group grievances due to political exclusion and discrimination drive civil wars. The grievance perspective suggests that socio-psychological factors allow groups to overcome collective action problems. We argue that the grievance perspective (over)focuses on the ends and not means, which are critical to explain how groups survive state sanction, allowing contention to escalate to civil war. We suggest that inclusive economic governance reduces investment in state-evading infrastructures for quotidian economic reasons, leading to the buildup of rebellion-specific capital. Physical and human infrastructures of state evasion form the logistical bases for survival against state sanction. Our analyses show that group-grievance-generating political factors are poorer predictors of civil war compared with economic freedoms measured as free-market friendly policies and the private ownership of economies, which should reduce economic rents accruing to state-evading shadow markets. Our results are robust to several alternative models, data, and estimating method. Theory that ignores the means explain the main causes of costly violence only partially, or mistake symptom for cause. Freedom and inclusiveness, which should reduce grievances, are intrinsically valuable, but they are hard to obtain when violence is waged successfully for more narrower ends.
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