Current and Future Cost Burden of Ischemic Stroke in Australia: Dynamic Model.

Background: Stroke remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Australia. The objective of this study was to estimate the current and future cost burden of ischemic stroke (IS) in Australia.

Method: First, the annual chronic management cost per person following IS were derived for all people aged ≥30 years discharged from a public or private hospital in Victoria, Australia between July 2012 and June 2017 (with follow-up data until June 2018 [n = 34,471]). Then extrapolated the data from from Victoria to the whole Australian population aged between 30 years and 99 years to project the total healthcare costs following IS (combination of acute event and chronic management cost) over a 20-year period (2019-2038) using a dynamic multistate life table model. Data for the dynamic model were sourced from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED) and supplemented with other published data.

Result: The estimated annual total chronic management cost following IS was 13,525 Australian dollars (AUD) per person (95% CI: AUD 13,380, AUD 13,670) for cohorts in the VAED between July 2012 and June 2017. The annual chronic management cost was estimated to decline following IS. The highest cost was incurred in the first year of follow-up post-IS (AUD 14,309 per person) and declined to AUD 9,776 in the sixth year of follow-up post-IS. The total healthcare cost for people aged 30-99 years was projected to be AUD 47.7 billion (95% UI: AUD 44.6 billion, AUD 51.0 billion) over the 20-year period (2019-2038) Australia-wide, of which 91.3% (AUD 43.6 billion) was attributed to chronic management costs and the remaining 8.7% (AUD 4.2 billion) were due to acute IS events.

Conclusion: IS has and will continue to have a considerable financial impact in the next 2 decades on the Australian healthcare system. Our estimated and projected cost burden following IS provides important information for decision making in relation to IS.