Estimating the Lifetime Cost of Managing Hypertension in Ghana: A Modelling Study.

Introduction: Over the last decade, hypertension (HPT) is among the leading causes of death and morbidity in Ghana. In recent past, most health policy research in Ghana and Africa focussed on communicable diseases. In recent times, Ghana and other developing nations have shifted their attention to non-communicable diseases because most of these countries are going through an epidemiologic transition where there is a surge in the prevalence of HPT. This paper was therefore set out to estimate the cost of treating HPT in Ghana from the patients' and health system's perspectives.

Method: We used a cost of illness framework to simulate the cost of HPT management in Ghana taking into account 4 of the common target organ complications with the most mortality implication. A decision analytic model (DAM) was developed in Microsoft^® Excel to simulate the progression of HPT patients and the Markov model was employed in simulating the lifetime cost of illness.

Results: The results show that by 10 years from diagnosis, the probability of death from any of the 4 complications (ie, stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease) is roughly 41.03%. By 20 years (or 243 months) from diagnosis, the probability of death is estimated to be 69.61%. However, by the 30th anniversary, the probability of death among the cohort is 82.3%. Also, the lifetime discounted cost of treating HPT is about GHS 869 106 which could range between GHS 570 239 and GHS 1.202 million if wide uncertainty is taken into account. This is equivalent to USD 119 056 (range: USD 78 115-164 723).

Conclusion: By highlighting the lifetime cost of treating HPT in Ghana, policies can be formulated regarding the cost of treating HPT by the non-communicable disease unit and National Health Insurance Authority (NHIA) of the Ministry of Health.