{"title":"肝脏风险评分：预测普通人群肝纤维化、肝脏相关和糖尿病相关死亡率的准确、经济高效的工具。","authors":"Shanghao Liu, Xiaohan Chen, Xuanwei Jiang, Xiaochun Yin, Ginenus Fekadu, Chuan Liu, Yan He, Huihui Chen, Wenjing Ni, Ruiying Wang, Qing-Lei Zeng, Yuping Chen, Ling Yang, Ruihua Shi, Sheng-Hong Ju, Jie Shen, Jingli Gao, Linhua Zhao, Wai-Kit Ming, Victor W Zhong, Gao-Jun Teng, Xiaolong Qi","doi":"10.1016/j.medj.2024.03.003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).</p>","PeriodicalId":29964,"journal":{"name":"Med","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":12.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"LiverRisk score: An accurate, cost-effective tool to predict fibrosis, liver-related, and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.\",\"authors\":\"Shanghao Liu, Xiaohan Chen, Xuanwei Jiang, Xiaochun Yin, Ginenus Fekadu, Chuan Liu, Yan He, Huihui Chen, Wenjing Ni, Ruiying Wang, Qing-Lei Zeng, Yuping Chen, Ling Yang, Ruihua Shi, Sheng-Hong Ju, Jie Shen, Jingli Gao, Linhua Zhao, Wai-Kit Ming, Victor W Zhong, Gao-Jun Teng, Xiaolong Qi\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.medj.2024.03.003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).</p><p><strong>Findings: </strong>Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.</p><p><strong>Funding: </strong>The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":29964,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Med\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Med\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.medj.2024.03.003\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/3/29 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Med","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.medj.2024.03.003","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/3/29 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
LiverRisk score: An accurate, cost-effective tool to predict fibrosis, liver-related, and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.
Background: Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.
Methods: The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).
Findings: Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY.
Conclusions: The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.
Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).
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Med is a flagship medical journal published monthly by Cell Press, the global publisher of trusted and authoritative science journals including Cell, Cancer Cell, and Cell Reports Medicine. Our mission is to advance clinical research and practice by providing a communication forum for the publication of clinical trial results, innovative observations from longitudinal cohorts, and pioneering discoveries about disease mechanisms. The journal also encourages thought-leadership discussions among biomedical researchers, physicians, and other health scientists and stakeholders. Our goal is to improve health worldwide sustainably and ethically.
Med publishes rigorously vetted original research and cutting-edge review and perspective articles on critical health issues globally and regionally. Our research section covers clinical case reports, first-in-human studies, large-scale clinical trials, population-based studies, as well as translational research work with the potential to change the course of medical research and improve clinical practice.
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