预测胰腺类癌患者长期疾病特异性生存的流行病学和预后提名图:基于 SEER 的研究。

IF 1.7 4区 医学 Q3 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
Pancreas Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-13 DOI:10.1097/MPA.0000000000002320
Hai Lin, Yufang Li, Yutong Chen, Linjuan Zeng, Bixiang Li, Shili Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的:胰腺类癌(PCT)是类癌的一种恶性形式。然而,人们对 PCT 的流行病学和预后因素知之甚少:本研究从监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中纳入了 2447 例 PCT 患者的数据,并将其随机分为训练队列(1959 例)和验证队列(488 例)。计算了PCT的流行病学,并确定了独立的预后因素,从而构建了预测PCT患者长期疾病特异性生存(DSS)的预后提名图:从2000年到2018年,PCT的发病率显著增加。1年、5年和10年的DSS率分别为96.4%、90.3%和86.5%。诊断时的年龄、分期、手术、放疗和化疗被确定为独立的预后因素,从而构建了预后提名图。两个队列的C指数、预测1年、5年和10年DSS的接收者操作特征曲线下面积以及提名图的校准图分别显示了较高的判别准确性、较好的生存预测能力和最佳的一致性:自 2000 年以来,PCT 的发病率迅速上升。此外,我们还建立了一个实用、有效、准确的预后提名图,用于预测 PCT 患者的长期 DSS。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Epidemiology and Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Long-Term Disease-Specific Survival in Patients With Pancreatic Carcinoid Tumor: A SEER-Based Study.

Objectives: Pancreatic carcinoid tumor (PCT) is described as a malignant form of carcinoid tumors. However, the epidemiology and prognostic factors for PCT are poorly understood.

Materials and methods: The data of 2447 PCT patients were included in this study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into a training cohort (1959) and a validation cohort (488). The epidemiology of PCT was calculated, and independent prognostic factors were identified to construct a prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term disease-specific survival (DSS) among PCT patients.

Results: The incidence of PCT increased remarkably from 2000 to 2018. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS rates were 96.4%, 90.3%, and 86.5%, respectively. Age at diagnosis, stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors to construct a prognostic nomogram. The C -indices; area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS, and calibration plots of the nomogram in both cohorts indicated a high discriminatory accuracy, preferable survival predictive ability, and optimal concordances, respectively.

Conclusions: The incidence of PCT has increased rapidly since 2000. In addition, we established a practical, effective, and accurate prognostic nomogram for predicting the long-term DSS of PCT patients.

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来源期刊
Pancreas
Pancreas 医学-胃肠肝病学
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.40%
发文量
289
审稿时长
1 months
期刊介绍: Pancreas provides a central forum for communication of original works involving both basic and clinical research on the exocrine and endocrine pancreas and their interrelationships and consequences in disease states. This multidisciplinary, international journal covers the whole spectrum of basic sciences, etiology, prevention, pathophysiology, diagnosis, and surgical and medical management of pancreatic diseases, including cancer.
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