Long-Term Prediction from Topic-Level Knowledge and Engagement in Mathematics Learning

During middle school, students’ learning experiences begin to influence their future decisions about college enrollment and career selection. Prior research indicates that both knowledge gained and the disengagement and affect experienced during this period are predictors of these future outcomes. However, this past research has investigated affect, disengagement, and knowledge in an overall fashion – looking at the average manifestation of these constructs across all topics studied across a year of mathematics. It may be that some mathematics topics are more associated with these outcomes than others. In this study, we use data from middle school students interacting with a digital mathematics learning platform, to analyze the interplay of these features across different topic areas. Our findings show that mastering Functions is the most important predictor of both college enrollment and STEM career selection, while the importance of knowing other topic areas varies across the two outcomes. Furthermore, while subject knowledge tends to be the most relevant predictor for general college enrollment, affective states, especially confusion and engaged concentration, become more important for predicting STEM career selection.