预期驱动的繁荣-萧条周期

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-21 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103575

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引用次数: 0

摘要

利用《专业预测者调查》的数据，我们发现分析师对未来经济增长的预期有很大一部分不是由于技术或商业周期文献所衡量的其他基本面冲击造成的。我们发现，这些无法解释的预测修正变化预示着主要宏观经济总量会出现显著的繁荣-萧条动态。我们提出了一种新的理论，即繁荣-萧条动态源于与基本面正交的预期冲击。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Expectation-driven boom-bust cycles

Using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we observe that a large fraction of analysts’ expectations about future economic growth is not due to technology or other shocks to fundamentals measured by the business cycle literature. We find that these unexplained changes in forecast revisions predict significant boom-bust dynamics in the key macroeconomic aggregates. We offer a novel theory where boom-bust dynamics stem from expectation shocks orthogonal to fundamentals.

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.