如何提供有关天气和气候影响的可操作信息?

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Tobias Geiger, T. Röösli, D. Bresch, Bodo Erhardt, Andreas M. Fischer, Dominik Imgrüth, Stefan Kienberger, Laura Mainetti, Gudrun Mühlbacher, Raphael Spiekermann
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化将导致更强烈、更频繁的天气和气候事件,这些事件将继续在全球范围内造成人员伤亡、经济损失和其他不利的社会影响。为了减轻这些后果,支持更明智的决策,改进行动和应对措施,许多国家气象和水文服务机构(NMHS)正在讨论如何提供天气和气候影响方面的服务,作为其业务常规的一部分。作者概述了风险框架如何支持国家气象和水文服务机构开发这些服务。除灾害信息外,风险视角还考虑了特定灾害对社会和环境造成不利后果的可能性,并试图量化其中的不确定性。我们总结了相关的战略、方法和技术步骤,并提出了开发影响相关服务的建议。具体而言,我们建议国家气象与健康服务机构采用综合风险框架,将危害-暴露-脆弱性模型纳入业务服务。这种框架整合了所有现有的预测和影响服务,包括基础影响模型,并允许在与合作伙伴、利益相关者和用户不断发展的合作基础上进行灵活的未来扩展。因此,本文试图统一来自不同时空尺度(天气、气候)和学科(水文学、气象学、经济学、社会科学)的影响相关服务的现有工作流,并提出一种可在国家气象与健康服务机构内部和之间产生协同作用的统一方法,以进一步开发和加强基于风险的服务。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How to provide actionable information on weather and climate impacts?–A summary of strategic, methodological, and technical perspectives
Climate change will result in more intense and more frequent weather and climate events that will continue to cause fatalities, economic damages and other adverse societal impacts worldwide. To mitigate these consequences and to support better informed decisions and improved actions and responses, many National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) are discussing how to provide services on weather and climate impacts as part of their operational routines. The authors outline how a risk framework can support the development of these services by NMHSs. In addition to the hazard information, a risk perspective considers the propensity for a given hazard to inflict adverse consequences on society and environment, and attempts to quantify the uncertainties involved. The relevant strategic, methodological and technical steps are summarized and recommendations for the development of impact-related services are provided. Specifically, we propose that NMHSs adopt an integrated risk framework that incorporates a hazard-exposure-vulnerability model into operational services. Such a framework integrates all existing forecast and impact services, including the underlying impact models, and allows for flexible future extensions driven by the evolving collaboration with partners, stakeholders and users. Thereby, this paper attempts to unify existing work streams on impact-related services from different spatial and temporal scales (weather, climate) and disciplines (hydrology, meteorology, economics, social sciences) and to propose a harmonized approach that can create synergies within and across NMHSs to further develop and enhance risk-based services.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Climate
Frontiers in Climate Environmental Science-Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
233
审稿时长
15 weeks
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