估算非最佳温度对死亡率的影响:2001-2021 年加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省研究

IF 3.3 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Rudra K. Shrestha, Ioana Sevcenco, Priscila Casari, Henry Ngo, Anders Erickson, Martin Lavoie, Deena Hinshaw, Bonnie Henry, Xibiao Ye
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究表明,每年有 510 多万人死于非最佳温度,包括极寒和极热。然而,这些研究大多报告的是大面积地理区域的平均估计值。不列颠哥伦比亚省(BC 省)因非最佳气温而造成的健康风险报告并不完整,或者研究区域仅限于城市中心。在本研究中,我们旨在估算 2001 年至 2021 年不列颠哥伦比亚省所有五个地区卫生局(RHA)中与非正常气温相关的可归因死亡人数。 我们采用广泛使用的分布式滞后非线性建模方法,利用每日全因死亡人数和 1 × 1 千米网格化日平均气温来估算不列颠哥伦比亚省各地区卫生局的气温与死亡之间的关联。我们通过比较模型估计的 2021 年高温穹顶期间的可归因死亡人数和不列颠哥伦比亚省验尸官服务机构确认的高温相关死亡人数,对模型进行了评估。 总体而言,2001 年至 2021 年期间,我们估计不列颠哥伦比亚省有 7.17% 的死亡(95% 经验置信区间 = 3.15,10.32)归因于非最佳温度,其中大部分归因于寒冷。平均而言,中度寒冷、中度炎热、极端寒冷和极端炎热导致的死亡率分别为每年每 10 万人 47.04(95% 置信区间 [CI] = 45.83,48.26)、0.94(95% CI = 0.81,1.08)、2.88(95% CI = 2.05,3.71)和 3.10(95% CI = 1.79,4.4)。 我们的研究结果表明,在整个不列颠哥伦比亚省,因气温不理想而导致的死亡人数存在明显的空间差异。我们发现,与较温和的非最佳气温相比,2001 年至 2021 年期间极端气温的影响要小得多。然而,在不久的将来,极端高温的影响可能会增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimating the impacts of nonoptimal temperatures on mortality: A study in British Columbia, Canada, 2001–2021
Studies show that more than 5.1 million deaths annually are attributed to nonoptimal temperatures, including extreme cold and extreme heat. However, those studies mostly report average estimates across large geographical areas. The health risks attributed to nonoptimal temperatures in British Columbia (BC) are reported incompletely or limit the study area to urban centers. In this study, we aim to estimate the attributable deaths linked to nonoptimal temperatures in all five regional health authorities (RHAs) of BC from 2001 to 2021. We applied the widely used distributed lag nonlinear modeling approach to estimate temperature–mortality association in the RHAs of BC, using daily all-cause deaths and 1 × 1 km gridded daily mean temperature. We evaluated the model by comparing the model-estimated attributable number of deaths during the 2021 heat dome to the number of heat-related deaths confirmed by the British Columbia Coroners Service. Overall, between 2001 and 2021, we estimate that 7.17% (95% empirical confidence interval = 3.15, 10.32) of deaths in BC were attributed to nonoptimal temperatures, the majority of which are attributed to cold. On average, the mortality rates attributable to moderate cold, moderate heat, extreme cold, and extreme heat were 47.04 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 45.83, 48.26), 0.94 (95% CI = 0.81, 1.08), 2.88 (95% CI = 2.05, 3.71), and 3.10 (95% CI = 1.79, 4.4) per 100,000 population per year, respectively. Our results show significant spatial variability in deaths attributable to nonoptimal temperatures across BC. We find that the effect of extreme temperatures is significantly less compared to milder nonoptimal temperatures between 2001 and 2021. However, the increased contribution of extreme heat cannot be ruled out in the near future.
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来源期刊
Environmental Epidemiology
Environmental Epidemiology Medicine-Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
2.80%
发文量
71
审稿时长
25 weeks
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