{"title":"中国的房价波动:具有地域差异的普遍模式","authors":"Xiaomeng Liu, Ziliang Yu, Yang Li","doi":"10.3846/ijspm.2024.21096","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The booming real estate sector has been regarded as the “gray rhino” risk emerging in China over the past decade. Yet, the house price volatility per se has not been thoroughly examined. Filling the gap in the literature, this paper explores the house price volatility and its determinants for 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, using an extensive monthly data set from 2005 to 2019. We find evidence of significant geographical disparities in both the GARCH effects and the best-fitted volatility specification. Significant GARCH effects are found in 57 cities, among which 40% of cities show a persistent volatility pattern. We also find that both the house price volatility pattern and the associated volatility value are affected significantly by education and healthcare amenities.","PeriodicalId":14424,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Strategic Property Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"HOUSE PRICE VOLATILITY IN CHINA: A PERVASIVE PATTERN WITH GEOGRAPHIC DISPARITY\",\"authors\":\"Xiaomeng Liu, Ziliang Yu, Yang Li\",\"doi\":\"10.3846/ijspm.2024.21096\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The booming real estate sector has been regarded as the “gray rhino” risk emerging in China over the past decade. Yet, the house price volatility per se has not been thoroughly examined. Filling the gap in the literature, this paper explores the house price volatility and its determinants for 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, using an extensive monthly data set from 2005 to 2019. We find evidence of significant geographical disparities in both the GARCH effects and the best-fitted volatility specification. Significant GARCH effects are found in 57 cities, among which 40% of cities show a persistent volatility pattern. We also find that both the house price volatility pattern and the associated volatility value are affected significantly by education and healthcare amenities.\",\"PeriodicalId\":14424,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Strategic Property Management\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Strategic Property Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2024.21096\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Strategic Property Management","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3846/ijspm.2024.21096","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
HOUSE PRICE VOLATILITY IN CHINA: A PERVASIVE PATTERN WITH GEOGRAPHIC DISPARITY
The booming real estate sector has been regarded as the “gray rhino” risk emerging in China over the past decade. Yet, the house price volatility per se has not been thoroughly examined. Filling the gap in the literature, this paper explores the house price volatility and its determinants for 70 large and medium-sized cities in China, using an extensive monthly data set from 2005 to 2019. We find evidence of significant geographical disparities in both the GARCH effects and the best-fitted volatility specification. Significant GARCH effects are found in 57 cities, among which 40% of cities show a persistent volatility pattern. We also find that both the house price volatility pattern and the associated volatility value are affected significantly by education and healthcare amenities.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of Strategic Property Management is a peer-reviewed, interdisciplinary journal which publishes original research papers. The journal provides a forum for discussion and debate relating to all areas of strategic property management. Topics include, but are not limited to, the following: asset management, facilities management, property policy, budgeting and financial controls, enhancing residential property value, marketing and leasing, risk management, real estate valuation and investment, innovations in residential management, housing finance, sustainability and housing development, applications, etc.