Instrumental Guanxi Culture and Inbound Urban Migration in China: A Prefecture-level Analysis Using Online Search Data

The socioeconomic role of guanxi networks among individuals has been widely recorded, yet macro-level analysis has been sparse in empirical research. This research fills that gap by presenting the first nationally representative evidence illustrating the connection between regional guanxi culture and population mobility among cities in China, with a particular focus on instrumental guanxi culture. To quantify guanxi culture, we employ online search indices related to gift giving, a measure which is challenging to capture through traditional survey data. Applying matched prefecture-level data spanning from 2011 to 2019, the panel model reveals a strong negative correlation between a city's instrumental guanxi culture and inbound migration, while sentimental guanxi culture exhibits a positive correlation with inbound mobility. This research not only adds to the existing theories by exploring the macro-level effects of both instrumental and sentimental guanxi practices but also introduces an innovative method for quantifying guanxi culture through big data analysis.