通过自愿使用驱虫蚊帐预防淋巴丝虫病的动态游戏。

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Akindele Akano Onifade , Jan Rychtář , Dewey Taylor
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引用次数: 0

摘要

淋巴丝虫病(LF)是一项公共卫生问题,目标是到 2030 年消除这一疾病,将淋巴丝虫病感染率控制在 1%以下。虽然大规模给药是世界卫生组织推荐的主要策略,但在无法使用大规模给药的情况下,使用驱虫蚊帐(ITN)作为替代策略发挥着至关重要的作用。在本文中,我们利用模仿动力学将人类行为和自愿使用驱虫蚊帐纳入低频传播的分区流行病学模型。我们发现了动态和 ITN 使用的均衡状态,因为它取决于流行病学参数和 ITN 的成本。我们研究了自愿使用驱虫蚊帐可将肺结核流行率控制在 1%临界值以下的条件。我们发现,当使用驱虫蚊帐的成本比感知到的禽流感成本低约 105 时,自愿使用驱虫蚊帐将消除禽流感这一公共卫生问题。此外,根据我们的模型预测,当免费赠送驱虫蚊帐时,超过 80% 的人口将使用驱虫蚊帐,这将在以按蚊为主要传播媒介的地区彻底消除蚊蝇传播。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A dynamic game of lymphatic filariasis prevention by voluntary use of insecticide treated nets

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 with a goal to keep the prevalence of LF infections under the 1% threshold. While mass drug administration (MDA) is a primary strategy recommended by WHO, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) plays a crucial role as an alternative strategy when MDA cannot be used. In this paper, we use imitation dynamics to incorporate human behavior and voluntary use of ITN into the compartmental epidemiological model of LF transmission. We find the equilibrium states of the dynamics and the ITN usage as it depends on epidemiological parameters and the cost of ITNs. We investigate the conditions under which the voluntary use of ITNs can keep the LF prevalence under the 1% threshold. We found that when the cost of using the ITNs is about 105 smaller than the perceived cost of LF, then the voluntary use of ITNs will eliminate LF as a public health concern. Furthermore, when the ITNs are given away for free, our model predicts that over 80% of the population will use them which would eliminate LF completely in regions where Anopheles are the primary vectors.

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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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