矛盾的结果：重新评估贷款价值比限制对房价通胀的影响

IF 1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI:10.1111/1467-8462.12547

Antony Andrews

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用贝叶斯结构时间序列分析法，考察了新西兰储备银行于 2013 年 10 月实施的贷款价值比（LTV）限制的因果影响。通过纳入当地线性趋势、季节性和回归等状态空间成分，预测了房价指数的反事实值。令人惊讶的是，研究显示，LTV 限制的实施对全国房价指数没有显著影响，这与此前中央银行的研究报告相矛盾，后者报告称住房成本通胀率下降了近 3 个百分点。这一自相矛盾的证据挑战了现有的关于 "LTV 限制 "在抑制房价上涨方面有效性的看法。

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Contradictory Results: Reassessing the Impact of Loan-to-Value Restrictions on House Price Inflation

Using Bayesian Structural Time Series analysis, this study examines the causal impact of loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions imposed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in October 2013. By incorporating state-space components, such as local linear trend, seasonality and regression, counterfactual values of house price indices are predicted. Surprisingly, the study reveals that the implementation of LTV restrictions had no significant effect on national house price indices, contradicting prior Central Bank studies that reported a nearly 3 percentage-point decrease in housing cost inflation. This contradictory evidence challenges existing perceptions of the effectiveness of LTV restrictions in curbing house price inflation.

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来源期刊

Australian Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： An applied economics journal with a strong policy orientation, The Australian Economic Review publishes high-quality articles applying economic analysis to a wide range of macroeconomic and microeconomic topics relevant to both economic and social policy issues. Produced by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, it is the leading journal of its kind in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. While it is of special interest to Australian academics, students, policy makers, and others interested in the Australian economy, the journal also considers matters of international interest.