Cliff recession geodynamics variability and constraints within poorly consolidated landslide-prone coasts in the southern Baltic Sea, Poland

This study identifies the reasons for geodynamics variability of the coastal system within two cliff-shore sections of the southern Baltic Sea (SBS). The comparative analysis included distinct moraines and their foregrounds near the open sea (S1) and within the Gulf of Gdańsk (S2). Short-term trends indicate a direct link between landslide occurrence and increased cliff retreat. Long-term (total) values were obtained by developing the 4F MODEL for large-scale applications, based on the analysis of remote sensing and hydroacoustic data (to determine the extent of shore platforms), the modelling of higher-order polynomial functions describing their extent, followed by the integral calculus of the indicated functions within the open-source Desmos environment. The retreat dynamics for individual landslides (S1) was an order of magnitude higher (m/yr) than the average for the whole cliff section (0.17 ± 0.008 m/yr), which correlates well with medium- and long-term development tendencies and recession dynamics, revealed by the numerical modelling method, since approximately 8 ka b2k, years before 2000 CE (at S1 = 0.17 ± 0.020 m/yr, at S2 = 0.11 ± 0.005 m/yr). While the approach described in this paper can reveal, project, and simulate the dynamics of past and future trends within other cliffed coasts shaped in tideless conditions, it also proves stable moraine erosional responses to sea-level rise since the Mid-Holocene.