Diurnal temperature fluctuations improve predictions of developmental rates in the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus

The European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus is a widespread pest in Norway spruce-dominated forests in Eurasia. Predicting its phenology and voltinism is crucial to plan forest management measures and to mitigate mass outbreaks. Current phenology models are based on constant temperatures inferred from laboratory experiments; however, insect life cycles under natural conditions are rather driven by diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations. Therefore, phenology models based on fluctuating temperatures would reflect field conditions more realistically and might thus improve model predictions. In a laboratory experiment, we investigated the development of I. typographus, applying mean temperatures between 3 and 35 °C and diurnal temperature oscillations of up to ± 15 °C. Subsequently, we calibrated developmental rate models and applied them to climate data, in order to assess the effect of temperature fluctuations on voltinism under field conditions. Our results showed that diurnal temperature oscillations significantly affected developmental rates. Compared to constant temperatures, development was faster at temperature oscillations falling below the lower developmental threshold, and slower at temperature oscillations exceeding the developmental optimum. Furthermore, short exposures to suboptimal temperatures affected I. typographus less than expected from constant conditions. Natural temperature fluctuations thus accelerate development under cool, shaded conditions, whilst slowing it under hot, sun-exposed conditions, thereby ultimately affecting voltinism. Our findings highlight the importance to account for diurnal temperature fluctuations for more accurate predictions of developmental rates of I. typographus in natural thermal environments, and provide the fundament for improving current phenology models to support effective bark beetle management in a warming climate.