Toward Low-Carbon Rice Production in China: Historical Changes, Driving Factors, and Mitigation Potential

Under the “Double Carbon” target, the development of low-carbon agriculture requires a holistic comprehension of spatially and temporally explicit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with agricultural products. However, the lack of systematic evaluation at a fine scale presents considerable challenges in guiding localized strategies for mitigating GHG emissions from crop production. Here, we analyzed the county-level carbon footprint (CF) of China’s rice production from 2007 to 2018 by coupling life cycle assessment and the DNDC model. Results revealed a significant annual increase of 74.3 kg CO₂-eq ha^–1 in the average farm-based CF (FCF), while it remained stable for the product-based CF (PCF). The CF exhibited considerable variations among counties, ranging from 2324 to 20,768 kg CO₂-eq ha^–1 for FCF and from 0.36 to 3.81 kg CO₂-eq kg^–1 for PCF in 2018. The spatiotemporal heterogeneities of FCF were predominantly influenced by field CH₄ emissions, followed by diesel consumption and soil organic carbon sequestration. Scenario analysis elucidates that the national total GHG emissions from rice production could be significantly reduced through optimized irrigation (48.5%) and straw-based biogas production (18.0%). Moreover, integrating additional strategies (e.g., advanced crop management, optimized fertilization, and biodiesel application) could amplify the overall emission reduction to 76.7% while concurrently boosting the rice yield by 11.8%. Our county-level research provides valuable insights for the formulation of targeted GHG mitigation policies in rice production, thereby advancing the pursuit of carbon-neutral agricultural practices.