萨缪尔森的最后一个宏观经济模型:世俗停滞与内生周期性增长

IF 5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Michaël Assous , Mauro Boianovsky , Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在恩师阿尔文-汉森百年诞辰之际,保罗-萨缪尔森于 1988 年发表了其 1939 年开创性的乘数-加速器模型的修订版,以解决汉森的世俗停滞假说的某些方面。建立 "凯恩斯-汉森-萨缪尔森 "模型(他称之为 KHS)的目的是分析人口增长对经济轨迹的影响。随后,该模型做出了一些改变。萨缪尔森不再使用 1939 年模型中的差分方程和紧密加速器,而是使用微分方程和灵活加速器来产生非线性极限循环。尽管萨缪尔森对其 1988 年论文在分析方面的贡献大加赞赏,但与 1939 年模型相比,宏观经济学家和经济史学家对其关注甚少。萨缪尔森的 1988 年论文是他发表的最后一篇宏观经济模型,基于他长期以来建立的非优化宏观动力学传统。我们的论文对这篇文章进行了精读,并提供了一些分析结果,对萨缪尔森 1988 年模型的形式方面进行了新的阐释。我们还讨论了该模型与约翰-希克斯、尼古拉斯-卡尔多、罗伊-哈罗德和理查德-古德温提出的商业周期模型之间的历史联系,并研究了萨缪尔森对 "世俗停滞 "一词的使用与拉里-萨默斯最近对该词的重构之间的差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Samuelson's last macroeconomic model: Secular stagnation and endogenous cyclical growth

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The “Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson” model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the economy's trajectory. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator, as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator to produce a nonlinear limit cycle. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has – in contrast with the 1939 model – received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, based on his long-established tradition of non-optimising macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of that article and some analytical results that shed new light on the formal aspects of Samuelson's 1988 model. We also discuss how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and Richard Goodwin and examine how far Samuelson's use of the term secular stagnation differs from Larry Summers's recent reconstruction of it.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
9.60
自引率
4.90%
发文量
159
期刊介绍: Structural Change and Economic Dynamics publishes articles about theoretical, applied and methodological aspects of structural change in economic systems. The journal publishes work analysing dynamics and structural breaks in economic, technological, behavioural and institutional patterns.
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