Future of hydrogen in the U.S. energy sector: MARKAL modeling results

Hydrogen is an attractive energy carrier which could play a role in decarbonizing process heat, power or transport applications. Though the U.S. already produces about 10 million metric tons of H2 (over 1 quadrillion BTUs or 1 % of the U.S. primary energy consumption), production technologies primarily use fossil fuels that release CO2, and the deployment of other, cleaner H2 production technologies is still in the very early stages in the U.S. This study explores (1) the level of current U.S. hydrogen production and demand, (2) the importance of hydrogen to accelerate a net-zero CO2 future, and (3) the challenges that must be overcome to make hydrogen an important part of the U.S. energy system. The study discusses four scenarios and hydrogen production has been shown to increase in the future, but this growth is not enough to establish a hydrogen economy. In this study, the characteristics of hydrogen technologies and their deployments in the long-term future are investigated using energy system model MARKAL. The effects of strong carbon constraints do not cause higher hydrogen demand but show a decrease in comparison to the business-as-usual scenario. Further, according to our modeling results, hydrogen grows only as a fuel for hard-to-decarbonize heavy-duty vehicles and is less competitive than other decarbonization solutions in the U.S. Without improvements in reducing the cost of electrolysis and increasing the performance of near-zero carbon technologies for hydrogen production, hydrogen will remain a niche player in the U.S. energy system in the long-term future. This article provides the reader with a comprehensive understanding of the role of hydrogen in the U.S. energy system, thereby explaining the long-term future projections.