欧亚大陆北部萨哈（雅库特）共和国 CMIP6 全球气候模型区域集合

IF 1.5 4区地球科学 Q3 ECOLOGY

Polar Science Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.polar.2024.101066

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引用次数: 0

摘要

基于多模式集合方法的未来气候预测被认为更加可靠，但并非所有模式在再现区域尺度的气候特征方面都具有相同的性能。根据误差统计和空间相关性指标，为萨哈（雅库特）共和国开发了一个最佳区域 GCM 组合。利用 48 个全球气候模式（GCM）的历史耦合模式相互比较项目第 6 版（CMIP6）模拟结果，与 1961-1990、1971-2000 和 1981-2010 年参考期的年平均气温（MAAT）再分析数据以及 1961-1990 年和 1981-2010 年之间的 MAAT 变化 ΔT 相比，对模式质量进行了评估。利用观测数据验证了性能最好的再分析--GHCN-CAMS。这个五人集合包括 CESM2-WACCM、CMCC-ESM2、CNRM-CM6-1-HR、INM-CM5-0、MPI-ESM1-2-HR 模式，按观测和模拟 ΔT 场之间的空间相关性皮尔逊系数加权。基于空间相关性指标的模式加权提高了所开发的多模式区域集合的性能，可用于预测不同气候变化情景下的未来气候。

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Regional ensemble of CMIP6 global climate models for Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, Northern Eurasia

Future climate projections based on multi-model ensemble approach are seen as more reliable, but not all models are equally performant at reproducing climate features at a regional scale. An optimal regional GCM ensemble was developed for Sakha (Yakutia) Republic based on error statistics and spatial correlation metrics. Historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 48 global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate model quality compared to mean annual air temperature (MAAT) reanalysis data for 1961–1990, 1971–2000 and 1981–2010 reference periods, and the MAAT change between 1961-1990 and 1981–2010, ΔT_81-61. The best-performing reanalysis, GHCN-CAMS, was validated using observational data. This five-member ensemble includes CESM2-WACCM, CMCC-ESM2, CNRM-CM6-1-HR, INM-CM5-0, MPI-ESM1-2-HR models, weighted by Pearson's coefficient of spatial correlation between observed and modeled ΔT_81-61 fields. Model weighting based on spatial correlation metrics improved the performance of the developed multi-model regional ensemble, which can be used in projecting future climate under different climate change scenarios.

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来源期刊

Polar Science ECOLOGY-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Polar Science is an international, peer-reviewed quarterly journal. It is dedicated to publishing original research articles for sciences relating to the polar regions of the Earth and other planets. Polar Science aims to cover 15 disciplines which are listed below; they cover most aspects of physical sciences, geosciences and life sciences, together with engineering and social sciences. Articles should attract the interest of broad polar science communities, and not be limited to the interests of those who work under specific research subjects. Polar Science also has an Open Archive whereby published articles are made freely available from ScienceDirect after an embargo period of 24 months from the date of publication. - Space and upper atmosphere physics - Atmospheric science/climatology - Glaciology - Oceanography/sea ice studies - Geology/petrology - Solid earth geophysics/seismology - Marine Earth science - Geomorphology/Cenozoic-Quaternary geology - Meteoritics - Terrestrial biology - Marine biology - Animal ecology - Environment - Polar Engineering - Humanities and social sciences.