Predictive nomograms of repeat intrahepatic recurrence and overall survival after radiofrequency ablation of recurrent colorectal liver metastases.

Objectives: This study was conducted to develop nomograms for predicting repeat intrahepatic recurrence (rIHR) and overall survival (OS), after radiofrequency ablation (RFA), treatment in patients with recurrent colorectal liver metastases (CLMs) after hepatectomy based on clinicopathologic features.

Methods: A total of 160 consecutive patients with recurrent CLMs after hepatectomy who were treated with ultrasound-guided percutaneous RFA from 2012 to 2022 were retrospectively included. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort, with a ratio of 8:2. Potential prognostic factors associated with rIHR and OS, after RFA, were identified by using the competing-risks and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively, and were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated by Harrell's C-index and a calibration curve.

Results: The 1-, 2-, and 3-year rIHR rates after RFA were 58.8%, 70.2%, and 74.2%, respectively. The 1-, 3- and 5-year OS rates were 96.3%, 60.4%, and 38.5%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, mutant RAS, interval from hepatectomy to intrahepatic recurrence ≤ 12 months, CEA level >5 ng/ml, and ablation margin <5 mm were the independent predictive factors for rIHR. Mutant RAS, largest CLM at hepatectomy >3 cm, CEA level >5 ng/ml, and extrahepatic disease were independent predictors of poor OS. Two nomograms for rIHR and OS were constructed using the respective significant variables. In both cohorts, the nomogram demonstrated good discrimination and calibration.

Conclusions: The established nomograms can predict individual risk of rIHR and OS after RFA for recurrent CLMs and contribute to improving individualized management.