Population-based X-ray gastric cancer screening in Hiroshima prefecture, Japan.

Background: X-ray gastric cancer (GC) screening has been shown to decrease mortality. Population-based X-ray GC screening has been performed in Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan, since 1983 but time trends and the efficacy of the method over 39 years have not been assessed.

Aim: To evaluate time trends and efficacy of population-based X-ray GC screening and identify challenges and suggested solutions for the future.

Methods: This was a population-based retrospective study. The data were derived from aggregated data of the Hiroshima Regional Health Medical Promotion Organization, including the number and rate of participants and those requiring esophagogastroduodenoscopies (EGDs), the number and rate of participants diagnosed as having GC, and the positive predictive value of the abnormal findings detected by X-ray and confirmed by EGDs. The number and rate of esophageal cancers were also collected. Further, the cost of detecting one GC was evaluated.

Results: The number of participants has decreased during the last four decades, from 39925 in 1983 to 12923 in 2021. The rate of those requiring EGDs decreased significantly in recent years (P < 0.001). The number of participants diagnosed as having GC has also declined, from 76 to 10 cases. However, the rate of cases diagnosed as GC among the participants remained around 0.1%. The positive predictive value increased significantly in recent years except during 1983-1991. The number and rate of accidentally detected esophageal cancers have risen recently, from 0% in 2008 to 0.02% in 2021, one-fifth of the diagnosis rate of GC. One GC diagnosis costs approximately 4200000 Japanese Yen (30000 United States Dollars) for the X-ray screenings and EGDs.

Conclusion: X-ray GC screening in Hiroshima has been efficient, but one challenge is the cost. Esophageal cancers may also need to be considered because they have gradually increased in recent years.