Benjamin R. Goldstein, Brett J. Furnas, Kendall L. Calhoun, Ashley E. Larsen, Daniel S. Karp, Perry de Valpine
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In this paper, we develop a two-stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Location</h3>\n \n <p>Central Valley, California, USA.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>We used a two-stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N-mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species- and habitat-specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat-buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human-induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":51018,"journal":{"name":"Diversity and Distributions","volume":"30 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ddi.13827","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Drought influences habitat associations and abundances of birds in California's Central Valley\",\"authors\":\"Benjamin R. Goldstein, Brett J. Furnas, Kendall L. Calhoun, Ashley E. Larsen, Daniel S. 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Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Main Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat-buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
目的 随着气候变化增加了许多地区干旱的频率和严重程度,干旱期间的保护工作正成为生态学家面临的一项重大挑战。干旱是多层面的气候事件,其影响可能因温度、水供应或食物供应的变化或这些因素的某些组合而缓和。与此同时,其他压力因素(如广泛的人为景观改造)也可能与干旱产生协同作用。在干旱期间指导保护决策的有用观测模型需要多维、动态的表示方法来区分可能的干旱影响,因此需要大量、高分辨率的数据集。在本文中,我们开发了一个两阶段预测框架,用于评估干旱影响如何随物种、栖息地和气候途径而变化。方法我们使用了一个两阶段反事实分析,结合预测性线性混合模型和 N 混合物模型来描述干旱对 66 种鸟类的多维影响。我们分析了2010年至2019年期间eBird参与性科学数据集的计数,并得出了干旱对相对丰度影响的物种和栖息地特定估计值。结果我们发现,虽然不到四分之一的物种(16/66)在干旱期间丰度下降,但将近一半的物种(27/66)在干旱期间改变了它们的栖息地关联。主要结论我们的研究结果表明,鸟类利用人工灌溉和热缓冲微生境结构的农业和开发土地(如果园或公园)来缓冲干旱的影响。促进生物多样性和减轻人类引起的水梯度压力的工作地方法对于在干旱期间保护鸟类至关重要。
Drought influences habitat associations and abundances of birds in California's Central Valley
Aim
As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision-making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two-stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways.
Location
Central Valley, California, USA.
Methods
We used a two-stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N-mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species- and habitat-specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance.
Results
We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased.
Main Conclusions
Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat-buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human-induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought.
期刊介绍:
Diversity and Distributions is a journal of conservation biogeography. We publish papers that deal with the application of biogeographical principles, theories, and analyses (being those concerned with the distributional dynamics of taxa and assemblages) to problems concerning the conservation of biodiversity. We no longer consider papers the sole aim of which is to describe or analyze patterns of biodiversity or to elucidate processes that generate biodiversity.