{"title":"全球变暖的非平衡波动","authors":"Jun Yin, Amilcare Porporato, Lamberto Rondoni","doi":"10.1175/jcli-d-23-0273.1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract While the warming trends of the Earth’s mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. Here we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are characterized by a special symmetry typical of small systems out of equilibrium. Their nearly universal properties are linked to the fluctuation theorem and reveal that the progressive warming is accompanied by growing asymmetry of temperature distributions. These statistics allow us to project the global temperature variability in the near future, in line with predictions from climate models, providing original insight about future extremes.","PeriodicalId":15472,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Climate","volume":"19 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Nonequilibrium fluctuations of global warming\",\"authors\":\"Jun Yin, Amilcare Porporato, Lamberto Rondoni\",\"doi\":\"10.1175/jcli-d-23-0273.1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract While the warming trends of the Earth’s mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. Here we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are characterized by a special symmetry typical of small systems out of equilibrium. Their nearly universal properties are linked to the fluctuation theorem and reveal that the progressive warming is accompanied by growing asymmetry of temperature distributions. These statistics allow us to project the global temperature variability in the near future, in line with predictions from climate models, providing original insight about future extremes.\",\"PeriodicalId\":15472,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Climate\",\"volume\":\"19 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Climate\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0273.1\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Climate","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-23-0273.1","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract While the warming trends of the Earth’s mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. Here we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are characterized by a special symmetry typical of small systems out of equilibrium. Their nearly universal properties are linked to the fluctuation theorem and reveal that the progressive warming is accompanied by growing asymmetry of temperature distributions. These statistics allow us to project the global temperature variability in the near future, in line with predictions from climate models, providing original insight about future extremes.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.