使用合成控制法评估陆基赌博禁令对犯罪的影响。

IF 2.4 3区 心理学 Q2 PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Journal of Gambling Studies Pub Date : 2024-09-01 Epub Date: 2024-03-01 DOI:10.1007/s10899-024-10281-y
Jakub Žofčák, Josef Šíma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们使用合成控制法来研究陆地赌博禁令是否会对特定城市的犯罪率产生影响。我们以捷克四个实施禁赌令的城市为样本,发现这些城市在禁赌令实施后几年的犯罪率发展与未实施禁赌令的对照城市大致相同,这表明禁赌令对这些城市的犯罪率没有显著影响。据我们所知,这是首次在赌博领域使用合成控制方法,因此本研究的主要贡献在于展示了使用这种方法的可能性。采用这种多用途方法可以改善目前许多赌博影响研究缺乏对照组或确认因果关系的识别策略的状况。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,本研究的结果为有关赌博监管中的一揽子措施的辩论做出了重要贡献;尽管病态赌博与犯罪有关,但禁止这种活动可能不会导致预期的后果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Using the Synthetic Control Method to Evaluate the Impact of a Land-Based Gambling Ban on Crime.

Using the Synthetic Control Method to Evaluate the Impact of a Land-Based Gambling Ban on Crime.

We use the synthetic control method to examine whether land-based gambling ban has an effect on crime in a given city. In a sample of four Czech cities where the ban was introduced, we show that these cities had roughly the same crime rate development in the years after the ban as the control cities without the ban, showing that there is no significant impact. As this is, to our knowledge, the first use of the synthetic control method in the context of gambling, the main contribution of this study lies in demonstrating the possibilities in its use. Employing this versatile method may improve the current situation where many gambling impact studies suffer from the absence of a control group or an identification strategy to confirm causal relationship. Last but not least, the results of this study make an important contribution to the debate on blanket measures in gambling regulation; although pathological gambling is linked to crime, banning this activity may not lead to the expected consequences.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
16.70%
发文量
72
期刊介绍: Journal of Gambling Studies is an interdisciplinary forum for the dissemination on the many aspects of gambling behavior, both controlled and pathological, as well as variety of problems attendant to, or resultant from, gambling behavior including alcoholism, suicide, crime, and a number of other mental health problems. Articles published in this journal are representative of a cross-section of disciplines including psychiatry, psychology, sociology, political science, criminology, and social work.
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