中国大陆输入麻风腮病毒的风险及其疫情爆发的可能性:一项回顾性统计模型研究。

IF 8.1 1区 医学
Xiaowei Deng, Yuyang Tian, Junyi Zou, Juan Yang, Kaiyuan Sun, Hongjie Yu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:2022-2023年猴痘疫情在非流行区的多个国家迅速蔓延,主要在男男性行为者(MSM)中传播。在本研究中,我们旨在评估天花的输入风险、边境筛查的有效性以及在中国大陆本地爆发的风险:我们利用Global.health提供的多国疫情期间报告的天花病例数和官方航空指南提供的国际航空旅行数据,估算了2022年4月14日至9月11日期间中国大陆的天花输入风险。我们构建了一个概率模型,以模拟天花疫情爆发期间边境筛查方案和检疫要求不那么严格的假设方案的有效性。考虑到不同的传播性、人群免疫力和人群活动,我们进一步评估了未被发现的天花感染者进入男男性行为者体内的天花爆发可能性:我们发现,国际航空旅行量的减少和严格的边境入境政策分别减少了约 94% 和 69% 的天花输入。在检疫政策下,15%-19% 的输入感染病例仍未被发现。一旦一例天花传入几乎没有人群免疫力的活跃 MSM 人群,引发本地传播的风险估计为 42%,超过 6 例将上升到 95%以上:我们的研究表明,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,国际航空旅行量的减少和严格的边境入境政策显著降低了痘病毒的输入。然而,随着航空旅行量恢复到大流行前的水平,风险可能会大大增加。鉴于中国大陆拥有庞大的 MSM 群体,麻疹痘可能会对中国大陆的公共卫生构成威胁。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The risk of mpox importation and subsequent outbreak potential in Chinese mainland: a retrospective statistical modelling study.

Background: The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region, mainly among men who have sex with men (MSM). In this study, we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk, border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.

Methods: We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11, 2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide. We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement. And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men, considering different transmissibility, population immunity and population activity.

Results: We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively. Under the quarantine policy, 15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected. Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity, the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%, and would rise to > 95% with over six cases.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently. However, the risk could be substantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level. Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.

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来源期刊
Infectious Diseases of Poverty
Infectious Diseases of Poverty INFECTIOUS DISEASES-
自引率
1.20%
发文量
368
期刊介绍: Infectious Diseases of Poverty is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that focuses on addressing essential public health questions related to infectious diseases of poverty. The journal covers a wide range of topics including the biology of pathogens and vectors, diagnosis and detection, treatment and case management, epidemiology and modeling, zoonotic hosts and animal reservoirs, control strategies and implementation, new technologies and application. It also considers the transdisciplinary or multisectoral effects on health systems, ecohealth, environmental management, and innovative technology. The journal aims to identify and assess research and information gaps that hinder progress towards new interventions for public health problems in the developing world. Additionally, it provides a platform for discussing these issues to advance research and evidence building for improved public health interventions in poor settings.
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