当前人口调查中无回复率的急剧上升对劳动力市场指标有何影响？

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-02-26 DOI:10.1002/jae.3035

Robert Bernhardt, David Munro, Erin L. Wolcott

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引用次数: 0

摘要

十年间，拒绝参与当前人口调查（CPS）的家庭比例增加了两倍。我们的研究表明，在一个月内拒绝参与调查但在相邻月份作出回应的家庭占了比例上升的重要部分。我们利用调查参与者在未回应前后几个月的劳动力状况，发现拒绝参与率的上升抑制了测算的劳动力参与率和就业人口比，但对失业率的影响很小。值得注意的是，在报告的 2000 年至 2020 年劳动力参与率下降中，非响应偏差至少占 10%。

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How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?

Within a decade, the share of households refusing to participate in the Current Population Survey (CPS) tripled. We show households that refuse 1 month but respond in an adjacent month account for an important part of the rise. Leveraging the labor force status of survey participants in the months surrounding their nonresponse, we find that rising refusals suppressed the measured labor force participation rate and employment–population ratio but had little effect on the unemployment rate. Notably, nonresponse bias accounts for at least 10% of the reported decline in the labor force participation rate from 2000 to 2020.

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.