{"title":"妊娠早期胚胎发育停滞的影响因素分析及其预测模型的构建和验证","authors":"Yongjun Ji, Hong Xu, Jianing Wang, Ruiheng Zhao","doi":"","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Context: </strong>The early symptoms of embryo development arrest are not typical. There is currently no model tool available to predict embryo development arrest.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To explore the influencing factors of embryo development arrest in early pregnancy and build a risk prediction model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>From May 2019 to March 2023, 277 patients suspected of embryonic development arrest during the first ultrasound examination in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of the Ninth Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were retrospectively selected as the study subjects. They were divided into diapause group and non-diapause group according to the second ultrasound (review after 1-2 weeks) to diagnose whether embryo development arrest. Collect two sets of data for analysis, Screen out the influencing factors of early pregnancy embryo development arrest. The logistic regression model and random forest model were constructed respectively. Evaluate the predictive performance of two statistical models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Out of 277 suspected cases of embryonic developmental arrest, 88 were ultimately confirmed. Older age (OR: 2.259, P = .017), higher ultrasonic blood flow resistance index (RI) (OR: 1.728, P = .038), higher ultrasonic gestational sac diameter/embryo head hip length ratio (MSD/CRL) (OR:1.919, P = .007), lower progesterone (OR: 0.562, P = .011), and lower pregnancy-associated protein A (PAPP-A) (OR: 0.495, P = .023). The low expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) (OR: 0.618, P = .005) was the influencing factor of embryo development arrest in early pregnancy. Building a prediction model based on the above indicators, it was found through testing that the random forest model is superior to the logistic regression model in predicting the risk of embryo development arrest.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>A random forest model based on age, ultrasound RI, progesterone, PAPP-A, ultrasound MSD/CRL ratio, and VEGF index can help clinicians identify the risk of embryonic developmental arrest.</p>","PeriodicalId":7571,"journal":{"name":"Alternative therapies in health and medicine","volume":" ","pages":"432-437"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of Influencing Factors of Embryo Development Arrest During Early Pregnancy and Construction and Validation of its Prediction Model.\",\"authors\":\"Yongjun Ji, Hong Xu, Jianing Wang, Ruiheng Zhao\",\"doi\":\"\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Context: </strong>The early symptoms of embryo development arrest are not typical. There is currently no model tool available to predict embryo development arrest.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>To explore the influencing factors of embryo development arrest in early pregnancy and build a risk prediction model.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>From May 2019 to March 2023, 277 patients suspected of embryonic development arrest during the first ultrasound examination in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of the Ninth Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were retrospectively selected as the study subjects. They were divided into diapause group and non-diapause group according to the second ultrasound (review after 1-2 weeks) to diagnose whether embryo development arrest. Collect two sets of data for analysis, Screen out the influencing factors of early pregnancy embryo development arrest. The logistic regression model and random forest model were constructed respectively. Evaluate the predictive performance of two statistical models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Out of 277 suspected cases of embryonic developmental arrest, 88 were ultimately confirmed. Older age (OR: 2.259, P = .017), higher ultrasonic blood flow resistance index (RI) (OR: 1.728, P = .038), higher ultrasonic gestational sac diameter/embryo head hip length ratio (MSD/CRL) (OR:1.919, P = .007), lower progesterone (OR: 0.562, P = .011), and lower pregnancy-associated protein A (PAPP-A) (OR: 0.495, P = .023). The low expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) (OR: 0.618, P = .005) was the influencing factor of embryo development arrest in early pregnancy. Building a prediction model based on the above indicators, it was found through testing that the random forest model is superior to the logistic regression model in predicting the risk of embryo development arrest.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>A random forest model based on age, ultrasound RI, progesterone, PAPP-A, ultrasound MSD/CRL ratio, and VEGF index can help clinicians identify the risk of embryonic developmental arrest.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7571,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Alternative therapies in health and medicine\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"432-437\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-10-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Alternative therapies in health and medicine\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"INTEGRATIVE & COMPLEMENTARY MEDICINE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Alternative therapies in health and medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INTEGRATIVE & COMPLEMENTARY MEDICINE","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of Influencing Factors of Embryo Development Arrest During Early Pregnancy and Construction and Validation of its Prediction Model.
Context: The early symptoms of embryo development arrest are not typical. There is currently no model tool available to predict embryo development arrest.
Objective: To explore the influencing factors of embryo development arrest in early pregnancy and build a risk prediction model.
Methods: From May 2019 to March 2023, 277 patients suspected of embryonic development arrest during the first ultrasound examination in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of the Ninth Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were retrospectively selected as the study subjects. They were divided into diapause group and non-diapause group according to the second ultrasound (review after 1-2 weeks) to diagnose whether embryo development arrest. Collect two sets of data for analysis, Screen out the influencing factors of early pregnancy embryo development arrest. The logistic regression model and random forest model were constructed respectively. Evaluate the predictive performance of two statistical models.
Results: Out of 277 suspected cases of embryonic developmental arrest, 88 were ultimately confirmed. Older age (OR: 2.259, P = .017), higher ultrasonic blood flow resistance index (RI) (OR: 1.728, P = .038), higher ultrasonic gestational sac diameter/embryo head hip length ratio (MSD/CRL) (OR:1.919, P = .007), lower progesterone (OR: 0.562, P = .011), and lower pregnancy-associated protein A (PAPP-A) (OR: 0.495, P = .023). The low expression of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) (OR: 0.618, P = .005) was the influencing factor of embryo development arrest in early pregnancy. Building a prediction model based on the above indicators, it was found through testing that the random forest model is superior to the logistic regression model in predicting the risk of embryo development arrest.
Conclusion: A random forest model based on age, ultrasound RI, progesterone, PAPP-A, ultrasound MSD/CRL ratio, and VEGF index can help clinicians identify the risk of embryonic developmental arrest.
期刊介绍：
Launched in 1995, Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine has a mission to promote the art and science of integrative medicine and a responsibility to improve public health. We strive to maintain the highest standards of ethical medical journalism independent of special interests that is timely, accurate, and a pleasure to read. We publish original, peer-reviewed scientific articles that provide health care providers with continuing education to promote health, prevent illness, and treat disease. Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine was the first journal in this field to be indexed in the National Library of Medicine. In 2006, 2007, and 2008, ATHM had the highest impact factor ranking of any independently published peer-reviewed CAM journal in the United States—meaning that its research articles were cited more frequently than any other journal’s in the field.
Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine does not endorse any particular system or method but promotes the evaluation and appropriate use of all effective therapeutic approaches. Each issue contains a variety of disciplined inquiry methods, from case reports to original scientific research to systematic reviews. The editors encourage the integration of evidence-based emerging therapies with conventional medical practices by licensed health care providers in a way that promotes a comprehensive approach to health care that is focused on wellness, prevention, and healing. Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine hopes to inform all licensed health care practitioners about developments in fields other than their own and to foster an ongoing debate about the scientific, clinical, historical, legal, political, and cultural issues that affect all of health care.
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