Yao Su, Honghong He, Jingtao Yang, Ya Liu, Weiwei Jiang, Chen Li, Yang Wei, Jun Cheng, Yiguo Chen
{"title":"过去三十年中国高血压心脏病研究中按年龄和性别划分的趋势以及疾病流行率的预测。","authors":"Yao Su, Honghong He, Jingtao Yang, Ya Liu, Weiwei Jiang, Chen Li, Yang Wei, Jun Cheng, Yiguo Chen","doi":"10.1002/hpm.3786","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Background</h3>\n \n <p>Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a common cause of cardiovascular disease and mortality worldwide, and its burden is increasing with aging populations.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Objectives</h3>\n \n <p>This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and mortality rates of HHD in mainland China and Taiwan Province using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and forecast the development trend of HHD from 2020 to 2024.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Methods</h3>\n \n <p>We obtained data on number of cases, deaths, crude prevalence rate, crude death rate, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for mainland China and Taiwan Province from 1990 to 2019 from the GBD 2019. Joinpoint software was used to estimate average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals, and the number of HHD cases in China from 2022 to 2024 was predicted by the exponential smoothing method.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>Between 1990 and 2019, HHD cases and deaths increased in mainland China, but the ASPR and ASDR decreased by 5.96% and 48.72%, respectively. In Taiwan Province, ASPR and ASDR decreased by 7.66% and 52.14%, respectively. The number of HHD cases and death rates varied by region, age, and sex, with a higher number of cases in mainland China than in Taiwan Province. By 2024, the number of HHD cases in mainland China was projected to be over 9.6 million cases, and in Taiwan Province, it was projected to surpass 120,000 cases.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusion</h3>\n \n <p>The differences in HHD cases between mainland China and Taiwan Province in terms of age and sex indicated the need for effective prevention and control measures, especially targeting the elderly population. These findings can inform policymakers and health professionals in the development of targeted prevention and treatment strategies and resource allocation for HHD in China.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":47637,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Health Planning and Management","volume":"39 4","pages":"1113-1130"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends by age and sex and projections of disease prevalence from studying hypertensive heart disease in China over the past three decades\",\"authors\":\"Yao Su, Honghong He, Jingtao Yang, Ya Liu, Weiwei Jiang, Chen Li, Yang Wei, Jun Cheng, Yiguo Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/hpm.3786\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Background</h3>\\n \\n <p>Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a common cause of cardiovascular disease and mortality worldwide, and its burden is increasing with aging populations.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Objectives</h3>\\n \\n <p>This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and mortality rates of HHD in mainland China and Taiwan Province using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and forecast the development trend of HHD from 2020 to 2024.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>We obtained data on number of cases, deaths, crude prevalence rate, crude death rate, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for mainland China and Taiwan Province from 1990 to 2019 from the GBD 2019. Joinpoint software was used to estimate average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals, and the number of HHD cases in China from 2022 to 2024 was predicted by the exponential smoothing method.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>Between 1990 and 2019, HHD cases and deaths increased in mainland China, but the ASPR and ASDR decreased by 5.96% and 48.72%, respectively. In Taiwan Province, ASPR and ASDR decreased by 7.66% and 52.14%, respectively. The number of HHD cases and death rates varied by region, age, and sex, with a higher number of cases in mainland China than in Taiwan Province. By 2024, the number of HHD cases in mainland China was projected to be over 9.6 million cases, and in Taiwan Province, it was projected to surpass 120,000 cases.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusion</h3>\\n \\n <p>The differences in HHD cases between mainland China and Taiwan Province in terms of age and sex indicated the need for effective prevention and control measures, especially targeting the elderly population. 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Trends by age and sex and projections of disease prevalence from studying hypertensive heart disease in China over the past three decades
Background
Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) is a common cause of cardiovascular disease and mortality worldwide, and its burden is increasing with aging populations.
Objectives
This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and mortality rates of HHD in mainland China and Taiwan Province using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), and forecast the development trend of HHD from 2020 to 2024.
Methods
We obtained data on number of cases, deaths, crude prevalence rate, crude death rate, age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) for mainland China and Taiwan Province from 1990 to 2019 from the GBD 2019. Joinpoint software was used to estimate average annual percentage change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals, and the number of HHD cases in China from 2022 to 2024 was predicted by the exponential smoothing method.
Results
Between 1990 and 2019, HHD cases and deaths increased in mainland China, but the ASPR and ASDR decreased by 5.96% and 48.72%, respectively. In Taiwan Province, ASPR and ASDR decreased by 7.66% and 52.14%, respectively. The number of HHD cases and death rates varied by region, age, and sex, with a higher number of cases in mainland China than in Taiwan Province. By 2024, the number of HHD cases in mainland China was projected to be over 9.6 million cases, and in Taiwan Province, it was projected to surpass 120,000 cases.
Conclusion
The differences in HHD cases between mainland China and Taiwan Province in terms of age and sex indicated the need for effective prevention and control measures, especially targeting the elderly population. These findings can inform policymakers and health professionals in the development of targeted prevention and treatment strategies and resource allocation for HHD in China.
期刊介绍：
Policy making and implementation, planning and management are widely recognized as central to effective health systems and services and to better health. Globalization, and the economic circumstances facing groups of countries worldwide, meanwhile present a great challenge for health planning and management. The aim of this quarterly journal is to offer a forum for publications which direct attention to major issues in health policy, planning and management. The intention is to maintain a balance between theory and practice, from a variety of disciplines, fields and perspectives. The Journal is explicitly international and multidisciplinary in scope and appeal: articles about policy, planning and management in countries at various stages of political, social, cultural and economic development are welcomed, as are those directed at the different levels (national, regional, local) of the health sector. Manuscripts are invited from a spectrum of different disciplines e.g., (the social sciences, management and medicine) as long as they advance our knowledge and understanding of the health sector. The Journal is therefore global, and eclectic.
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