汉江中游环境变化下洪水区域组成的精细分析

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENGINEERING, CIVIL
Pengxin Deng , Changjiang Xu , Jianping Bing , Leizhi Wang , Lingjie Li
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为研究汉江中游(MHR)环境变化条件下的洪水区域组成,建立了数据驱动的水文模拟模型及其相关定量方法。定量分析了汉江中游黄庄(HZ)洪水区域组成,探讨了环境变化对河道行洪的影响。主要研究成果如下:建立了基于支持向量回归机(SVRM)的水文模拟模型,模拟了 1965~2021 年 HZ 的日均流量过程。结果表明: ① 建立了基于支持向量回归机(SVRM)的水文模拟模型,模拟了 1965~2021 年港珠澳大桥日均流量过程,纳什-萨特克利夫效率(NSE)系数达到 0.95 以上,总体相对误差(RE)在±1%以内,模拟效果良好。② 提出了确定洪泛区组成的定量分析方法。结果表明,汉江上游(UHR)是造成马家河流域洪水的主要因素,占洪水总量的 60.62 % 至 78.05 %。唐白河(TR)占 14.1 % 至 27.4 %,而南河的贡献较小,仅占 6.83 % 至 8.85 %。趋势分析表明,来自乌江流域的洪水比例在夏汛期增大,秋汛期减小,而唐白河和南河的变化是重合的,特别是在秋汛期,唐白河的洪水比例明显增大。在采取防洪措施时,不能忽视 UHR 和 TR 的洪水影响。提出了量化环境变化综合影响的综合分析方法。结果表明,环境变化对洪水路径及其洪区组成的影响相对较小。但是,环境变化确实影响了洪水的传播过程,导致洪峰流量提前出现,洪峰流量增加,超过 12000 立方米/秒的洪水涨落迅速。这些研究成果为设计马弗拉山洪水区域以及洪水控制和减灾系统提供了有力的基础支持。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Refined analysis of flood-regional composition under changing environment in the middle reach of Hanjiang River

Refined analysis of flood-regional composition under changing environment in the middle reach of Hanjiang River

To investigate the flood-regional composition under changing environmental conditions in the middle reach of Hanjiang River (MHR), a data-driven hydrological simulation model and its related quantitative methods were developed. The flood-regional composition of Huangzhuang(HZ) in the MHR was quantitatively analyzed, and the influence of environmental changes on river flood routing was discussed. The primary research findings are as follows: ① A hydrological simulation model based on support vector regression machine (SVRM) is constructed to simulate the daily average flow process of HZ from 1965 to 2021. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient achieved values above 0.95, and the overall relative error (RE) was within ± 1 %, indicating excellent simulation performance. ② A quantitative analysis method has been proposed to identify the composition of flood areas. The results indicate that the upper reach of Hanjiang River (UHR) is the primary contributor to floods in the MHR, accounting for 60.62 % to 78.05 % of the total. The Tangbai River (TR) contributed between 14.1 % and 27.4 %, whereas the Nan River had a smaller contribution of only 6.83 % to 8.85 %. ③ Trend analysis indicates that the proportion of floods originating from the UHR increases in the summer flood season and decreases in the autumn flood season, while those changes of TR and Nanhe River (NR) are coincidental, especially in the autumn flood season, the proportion of floods in the TR increases significantly. The impact of floods from the UHR and TR cannot be ignored when implementing flood control measures. ④ A comprehensive analysis method has been proposed to quantify the integrated impacts of environmental changes. The results show that environmental changes had a relatively minor impact on flood routing and its flood-regional composition. However, they did affect the flood propagation process, resulting in earlier occurrences in peak flow, increased in peak discharge, and rapid rise and fall of floodwaters for floods exceeding 12,000 m3/s. These research findings provide strong foundational support for designing flood-regional, as well as flood control and disaster reduction systems in the MHR.

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来源期刊
Journal of Hydro-environment Research
Journal of Hydro-environment Research ENGINEERING, CIVIL-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
34
审稿时长
98 days
期刊介绍: The journal aims to provide an international platform for the dissemination of research and engineering applications related to water and hydraulic problems in the Asia-Pacific region. The journal provides a wide distribution at affordable subscription rate, as well as a rapid reviewing and publication time. The journal particularly encourages papers from young researchers. Papers that require extensive language editing, qualify for editorial assistance with American Journal Experts, a Language Editing Company that Elsevier recommends. Authors submitting to this journal are entitled to a 10% discount.
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