投资于朋友:地缘政治结盟在外国直接投资流动中的作用

IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Shekhar Aiyar , Davide Malacrino , Andrea F. Presbitero
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引用次数: 0

摘要

企业和政策制定者正越来越多地考虑采用 "朋友式外包"(friend-shoring),以减少供应链受地缘政治紧张局势影响的可能性。我们利用 2003 年至 2022 年间超过 30 万例绿地外国直接投资的投资级数据,检验了这些考虑因素是否影响了外国直接投资的流动。通过控制标准推力和拉力因素的引力模型的估计结果显示,地缘政治调整在推动双边投资的地理足迹方面发挥着重要的经济作用。纳入外国直接投资的标准双边驱动因素(如地理距离和贸易流量)后,这一结果是稳健的,而且自 2018 年以来,随着中美贸易紧张局势的重现,这一效应的强度也有所增强。此外,我们的结果并不局限于绿地外国直接投资,并购也是如此。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows

Firms and policy makers are increasingly looking at friend-shoring to make supply chains less vulnerable to geopolitical tensions. We test whether these considerations are shaping FDI flows, using investment-level data on over 300,000 instances of greenfield FDI between 2003 and 2022. Estimates from a gravity model, which controls for standard push and pull factors, show an economically significant role for geopolitical alignment in driving the geographical footprint of bilateral investments. This result is robust to the inclusion of standard bilateral drivers of FDI – such as geographic distance and trade flows – and the strength of the effect has increased since 2018, with the resurgence of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Moreover, our results are not limited to greenfield FDI, but hold also for M&As.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
106
期刊介绍: The aim of the European Journal of Political Economy is to disseminate original theoretical and empirical research on economic phenomena within a scope that encompasses collective decision making, political behavior, and the role of institutions. Contributions are invited from the international community of researchers. Manuscripts must be published in English. Starting 2008, the European Journal of Political Economy is indexed in the Social Sciences Citation Index published by Thomson Scientific (formerly ISI).
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