预发裁员通知和累计职位损失

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Applied Econometrics Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI:10.1002/jae.3032

Pawel M. Krolikowski, Kurt G. Lunsford

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们从《工人调整和再培训通知》（WARN）法案通知中收集数据，并确定其作为总体失业指标的实用性。受 WARN 通知影响的工人数量（"WARN 裁员"）会导致州一级的初次失业保险申请、失业率（UR）和私人就业变化。WARN 裁员与 "大规模裁员统计"（Mass Layoff Statistics）和 "职位空缺和劳动力流动调查"（Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey）中的总裁员人数存在相关性，但 WARN 裁员更及时，涵盖的样本更长。在向量自回归中，WARN 裁员的变化会导致 UR 变化和职位离职。最后，他们改进了对 UR 和私人就业变化的伪实时预测。

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Advance layoff notices and aggregate job loss

We collect data from Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act notices and establish their usefulness as an indicator of aggregate job loss. The number of workers affected by WARN notices (“WARN layoffs”) leads state-level initial unemployment insurance claims and unemployment rate (UR) and private employment changes. WARN layoffs comove with aggregate layoffs from Mass Layoff Statistics and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey but are timelier and cover a longer sample. In a vector autoregression, changes in WARN layoffs lead UR changes and job separations. Finally, they improve pseudo real-time forecasts of the UR and private employment changes.

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来源期刊

Journal of Applied Econometrics Multiple-

CiteScore

3.70

自引率

4.80%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.