Evolving Landscape of Diabetes Epidemic in Southeast Asia: Insights from National Family Health Survey.

Background: Limited evidence on diabetes prevalence trends from the Indian subcontinent prompted this study to estimate the trends in diabetes prevalence using the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data.

Method: A cross-sectional survey carried out between 2015-2016 (NFHS-4) and 2019-2021 (NFHS-5) in a nationally representative sample of adults (aged 20 to 54 years) was used. Diabetes was defined as the presence of: diagnosed diabetes (self-reported), fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥ 126 mg/dl, or a random plasma glucose (RPG) ≥200 mg/dl. "Fasting" was defined as the last food intake >8 hours and "random" as irrespective of the last meal. Diagnosed diabetes was defined as the presence of "self-reported diabetes" and undiagnosed diabetes was defined as FPG > 126 mg/dl or RPG ≥200 mg/dl.

Findings: The crude prevalence of total diabetes increased from 3.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.46-3.55) in 2015-2016 to 3.99% (95% CI: 3.94-4.04) in 2019-2021, a relative change of 14%. The increase was more in the poorest (1.77% vs 2.48%; P < 0.001) as compared to the rich (5.35%% vs· 5.43%; P = 0.847), rural areas (2.71% vs 3.38%; P < 0.001) as compared to urban (4.95% vs. 5.26%; P = 0.051), in normal weight individuals (1.87% vs. 2.16%; P < 0.001) as compared to obese (7.12% vs. 7.03%; P = 0.384).

Interpretation: While the absolute prevalence of diabetes is highest amongst individuals residing in urban areas belonging to the rich wealth centile, the relative increase in the prevalence is disproportionately higher in those residing in rural areas, belonging to the poorest wealth centiles and having normal weight.