Carbon compensation and carbon neutrality: Regional variations based on net carbon transfer of trade in China

Inter-provincial carbon compensation is an important means for a country to realize regional environmental protection and achieve coordinated regional development and realize the carbon neutral goal. It is easier to realize inter-provincial carbon compensation compared with the national level. Based on the multi-regional input-output model and the input–output data of 30 provinces in China, this study measured the carbon transfer in, carbon transfer out and net carbon transfer of each province, and based on the undesirable slacks-based measurement model under the common frontier, the provinces were given the shadow price of carbon emission in line with the situation of the local economic development, resource endowment, and industrial structure, and based on which, the amount of carbon compensation of each province was measured. The results show that: China's provinces and regions have a larger share of trade-implied carbon emissions; the net carbon transfer in areas mainly concentrated in the traditional energy provinces, which provide industrial products for other regions and undertake the transfer of carbon emissions, and become the main carbon compensation recipient areas; the net carbon transfer out is mainly concentrated in the economically developed and densely populated areas such as Beijing–Tianjin region and the eastern and southern coasts, which satisfy the end-consumption by purchasing a large number of industrial products and generate a large amount of carbon emissions. Transfer out; becoming the main carbon offset payment area. Based on the results of this study, it is proposed to improve the national provincial carbon offset mechanism and implement a differentiated and synergistic carbon emission reduction cooperation approach. The research program of this study can provide a reference for the development of inter-regional carbon offset programs.