尼日利亚国际贸易对增长影响的实证分析

Esther Kpalukwu
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摘要

外贸在推动国内经济增长和提高国家外汇收入潜力方面的作用一直是经济文献中关注的主题,因此引发了对国际贸易促进增长这一说法的研究。本研究的重点是对外贸易对经济增长的影响。本研究的具体目标是探讨净出口、汇率和政府资本支出对经济增长的影响。本研究的时间跨度为 35 年(1980-2015 年),变量数据来源于尼日利亚中央银行统计公报。数据分析采用了误差修正模型(ECM)技术。菲利普斯-佩伦单位根检验表明,变量在第一次差分后是静态的。因此,序列的积分阶数为零。约翰森协整检验结果表明,变量是协整的。因此,这表明变量之间存在长期关系。协整回归结果表明,净出口对经济增长有显著的正向影响。另一方面,汇率对经济增长有显著的负面影响。政府资本支出对经济增长的长期影响为负且不显著。系数限制的 Wald 检验表明,净出口、汇率和政府资本支出在解释经济增长变化方面具有统计意义。根据研究结果,建议政府采取促进出口和减少进口竞争性商品的贸易政策,以确保尼日利亚最大限度地利用对外贸易带来的好处。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical Analysis of The Growth Effects of International Trade in Nigeria
This role of foreign trade in driving growth in the domestic economy and boosting the potential of a country to foreign exchange earnings has remained a subject of interest in economic literature, thus provoking investigation into the claim that international trade is growth-enhancing. This study centred on the impact of foreign trade on economic growth. The specific objectives of this study are to explore the effects of net export, exchange rate and government capital expenditure on economic growth. This study covered a period of 35 years (1980-2015) and the source of data for the variables is the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The error correction model (ECM) was utilized as a technique for data analysis. The Phillips-Perron unit root test shows that the variables are stationary upon first differencing. Thus, the series are integrated of order zero. The Johansen cointegration test result indicates that the variables are cointegrated. Therefore, this reveals that the variables have a long-run relationship. The cointegrating regression result shows that net export has a significant positive impact on economic growth. The exchange rate on the other hand is found to significantly and negatively influence economic growth. The long-run impact of government capital expenditure on economic growth is negative and insignificant. The Wald test for coefficient restrictions shows that net export, exchange rate and government capital expenditure are statistically significant in explaining changes in economic growth. Based on the findings, it is recommended that government should adopt trade policies that promote export and reduce the incidence of importing competing goods to ensure that Nigeria optimizes the benefits that foreign trade creates.
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